Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins Odds, Analysis, Spread Pick

Houston Texans (1-8-1 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS)

Week 12 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, November 27, 2022 at 1PM EST

Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Florida

TV: CBS

Point Spread: HOU +12/MIA -12 (Bovada – Score a 50% real cash bonus up to $250 and live bet games at the BEST live wagering platform on the web, bar none!)

Over/Under Total: 45.5

The Houston Texans come into Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday for a week 12 AFC showdown with the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are sitting pretty at 7-3, atop the AFC East standings. On top of that, they’re nice and rested, coming off a bye week that followed a 39-17 hammering of Cleveland. They will be looking for their fifth win in a row against a hurting Texans team, losers of five straight, including Sunday’s 23-10 loss to the Commanders. Can they give the Dolphins a little sweat, or will Tua and the ‘Fins romp at home as big favorites? Let’s break it down!

Getting a Lay of the Land

After some troubling sequences for Tua Tagovailoa, it has been good to see him avoid further head trauma while thriving under center and getting the Dolphins back on track after they sort of fell apart without him. You see him getting more comfortable and taking more chances, and the bye putting another week of separation between himself and all that drama helps too. They even added another back in Jeff Wilson, who along with Raheem Mostert, gives Miami a nice two-headed backfield that can do damage. Now is where the Dolphins are supposed to take it up another level and start putting their postseason case together. And getting the one-win Texans at home isn’t a bad place to start.

The Texans are bad. There is not any getting around that. Davis Mills is likely backup material in the big picture and not a real starting QB. Dameon Pierce has given them a presence in the backfield, but their offense is pretty strapped with a lot of role receivers and a number-one in Brandin Cooks who seems to have checked out a little bit mentally. There isn’t anything they do on offense that resonates on a regular basis. To top it off, they’re the most-exploitable team defensively against the run, something that could cost them this week. They have been decent against the pass, and Pierce rising in form has given this offense a new dimension. In addition, they until recently, had been doing pretty good in an ATS before only covering one of their last five spreads. One could still say they’re probably better than their record, and not many teams have embarrassed them this season.

Is There Any Hope for the Texans?

From a straight-up perspective, it seems dicey, but the spread makes it a possibility. And with Miami, it’s never going to be easy with a defense that lags well behind the offense in terms of having come around. While it has been better in spots, they can be hit through the air. The question for the purposes of this game would be, what can the Texans do about it? Pierce again offers possibilities, but it looks pretty thin when entertaining the prospects of them keeping up with the Miami offense. Not that this Dolphins team is so accustomed to success that they’re going to be phoning it in, but the Texans and teams like them can sometimes benefit from the apathy that results from pending matchups that aren’t particularly challenging. And who’s to say the backdoor cover might not be more in play with them less likely to expose guys like Tua, Tyreek Hill, or Jaylen Waddle if they take strong control of the game?

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Good Matchup for Miami?

Defensively, a dicey secondary might not pay the price too much for that this week. That helps. And while teams have run well against them, the defensive front would appear to match up well with Houston and their narrow road to success. Still, despite one win, the Texans can sometimes explode a little bit, so Miami will look to keep this in control defensively. With Houston being a team where teams have had great ease in running them over, you wonder how that will resonate with Miami’s more pass-happy approach. Still, Mostert has been coming on over the course of the year, and Wilson gives them another gear. I’m not sure I’d rule out a big running day from Miami. And with teams having so much success running against Houston, maybe their secondary has been made to look a little better than it really is. With Tua slinging it to Hill, Waddle, TE Mike Gesicki, and others, the Houston pass-defense might not be much of a deterrent to success.

Houston just can’t really hang in there in any kind of shootout. The two 300-yard games Mills has this season are more from throwing a ton when down a lot. But even when they’re down a lot, they still strangely run the ball more than you’d ever think. It’s just that they can’t really pounce on Miami’s weaknesses. They look to be in a better spot to run the ball but might find behind so quickly that it’s just a big grind that goes nowhere. They’re really going to need to see some stars to align the right way to be in this game toward the end.

Lay the Number

I see a rested Miami team being somewhat shot out of a cannon in front of a home crowd that’s being given something exciting for the first time in years. In the end, Houston is a team that should be fancied in a lot of ATS spots despite their lack of overall success. They can be scrappy in the right spot, and I’m not sure this is one of them. Their offense doesn’t seem to be really improving, and even though guys are still trying hard, keeping pace with an offensive machine like Miami might be a bit out of reach. I’ll take the Dolphins.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Miami Dolphins minus 12 points. Bet your sports predictions for FREE this week by scoring a 100% real cash bonus up to $300 by entering bonus promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!