Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns Pick 11/15/20

Houston Texans (2-6 SU, 1-7 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (5-3, 3-5), 11/15/20

Time: 1 pm ET

Where: FirstEnergy Stadium

TV: Fox

Point spread: Hous +3.5/Cle -3.5 (WagerWeb – This betting shop offers 20 point teasers and rebates on your action!)

Moneyline: Texans +150/Browns -180

Over/Under: 53

The Cleveland Browns haven’t made the NFL playoffs since 2002, but they’re right in the fight to make it this season. On the other hand, the Houston Texans have made the playoffs four of the last five seasons, but they’re going to need a minor miracle to make it this year. That’s the situation heading into Sunday afternoon’s Browns-Texans bout in C-Town. The line on this game started off below a magic number, then quickly got bet above it. Should we go with the betting flow with our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 10 NFL betting odds opened Cleveland at -2.5 over Houston, with an over/under of around 55. Early betting action then bumped the Browns to -3.5 and dropped that total to 53.

Texans vs. Browns Set-Up

Houston, playing against a total wins over/under of 7.5 this season, just picked up its second victory, holding off Jacksonville last week 27-25. The Texans spotted the Jaguars a touchdown less than one minute into the game, then scored the next 13 points and led 20-16 at the half. Houston then appeared to take control when it scored the first touchdown out of the locker room to go up by 11 but allowed the Jags to rally within two points with a minute and a half to go. The Texans defense then came up with a stop on a Jacksonville two-point conversion attempt to secure the victory.

However, Houston couldn’t cover the spread as a seven-point favorite.

The Texans actually got out-gained by the Jaguars 412-374, out-rushed 115-107, and lost time of possession by a 32:28 split. So Houston has been out-gained and out-rushed seven times in eight games this season.

The Texans are also now 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS since replacing Coach O’Brien with Coach Crennel.

At 2-6 overall, Houston is three games and seven teams behind Las Vegas in the battle for the sixth and final AFC playoff spot.

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Cleveland, playing against a wins O/U of 8.5, is 5-3 after laying an egg in a 16-6 home loss to the Raiders two weeks ago. The Browns then had last week off to stew.

Cleveland trailed Las Vegas 6-3 at the half two weeks ago, tied the score at 6-6 midway through the third quarter, then came up empty from there, losing to the Raiders outright as a one-point favorite.

The Browns got out-gained by Vegas 309-223, out-rushed 209-101, and lost time of possession by a 38:22 split. So Cleveland has been out-gained six times in eight games this season.

Three weeks ago, the Browns out-lasted Cincinnati 37-34, but just before that, they got punked at Pittsburgh 38-7.

At 5-3 overall, Cleveland is tied with the Raiders, Miami, and Indianapolis for that second AFC wild-card spot, although it trails Vegas and the Dolphins by tie-breakers.

On the personnel front, Browns RB Nick Chubb is expected to return to action this week after missing the last four games with a knee injury. Also, Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield missed practice early this week due to C-19 protocol, but it appears he’ll play Sunday.

NFL Betting Trends

• Houston is 26-19 SU, 20-21-4 ATS with Deshaun Watson as the starter at quarterback.
• Cleveland is 17-20 SU, 14-21-2 ATS with Baker Mayfield as the starter at QB.
• Home teams are just 65-67 SU, 61-70 ATS in the NFL this season.
• Favorites are 84-47 SU but only 54-76 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

Overs are 5-3 in Texans games this season, which are averaging 54 total points against an average over/under of 52.

Overs are 5-3 in Browns games this season, which are averaging 55 points against an average O/U of 49.

After going 9-4, last week overs are now 72-58 in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Pick

Cleveland laid an egg a couple of weeks ago, but we expect a bounce-back effort this week. The Browns also own the better running game and the better run defense, and by our accounting, teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. So we’re betting the Brownies this week, minus the points. Question: Why would you bet at -110 odds when you could be doing so for cheaper at -105 at BetAnySports? Why?