Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Pick

Houston Texans (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)

NFL Football Week 5

Date/Time: Sunday, October 8th, 2023. 1:00 PM (EST)

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: HOU +1 / ATL -1 (Did you know that you could be betting at -105 instead of -110 at BetAnySports Sportsbook? We’ve advertised them for over 10 years with ZERO complaints!)

Moneyline: Texans +100/Dirty Birds -120

Total: 41.5

The Atlanta Falcons trip across the pond did not go according to plan last week in what resulted in a 23-7 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Playing in front of a London crowd, Falcons QB Desmond Ridder had one of his worst games of the season with two interceptions and a lost fumble. Oddly enough, the Falcons nearly outgained Jacksonville in total yardage but the turnovers were crucial towards the eventual outcome. On Sunday, Atlanta will return to the friendly confines of Mercedes-Benz Stadium when they host the Houston Texans for a week 5 showdown.

The visiting Houston Texans are coming off their best performance of the season in a 30-6 blowout against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Surprisingly, it was the 2nd straight week the Texans yielded 20 point victories behind QB C.J Stroud who seems to be getting better each week. Houston took advantage of Pittsburghs inability to move the football and Stroud threw for 300 passing yards while WR Nico Collins posted an incredible statline featuring 7 catches for 168 yards with two touchdowns. Needless to say, the Texans were not expected to produce the big offensive numbers that we have seen over the last two weeks and they will look to keep the momentum going with their road trip at Atlanta.

Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Analysis

At first glance, the Texans appear to be the appetizing pick because their offense is on the rise while Atlanta appears to be regressing with Ridder behind center. In fact, the Texans opened 4.5 point underdogs but much of the early money moved the line down to basically a pick em contest. While I dont disagree with the fact that the Texans appear to be getting better, I am very concerned about the match-up this week. Despite Ridders terrible play, Atlantas offense is still heavily invested in the running game behind running backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Personally, I believe Robinson is showing all the signs of a potential superstar and perhaps needs the ball more. With that being said, Atlanta has not been able to stick to the running game as much in recent weeks due to falling behind early.

For this weeks match-up against the Texans, I believe Atlantas stout running attack may have the opportunity to set the tone of the game. Despite ranking about mid-pack in the NFL allowing 114 yards per game on the ground, the Texans are ranked dead last by PFF against the run. If you consider Head Coach Arthur Smith is getting some criticism for the recent performance of this Atlanta offense, I think this is the perfect rebound match-up and perhaps an opportunity to feed Robinson 20+ touches. If that happens, I believe Atlanta will have success and it will be interesting to see if C.J Stroud and the Texans offense can keep their pace on the wrong side of the time of possession battle.

Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends

• The Texans are 5-15 SU in the last 20 games.
• The Texans are 6-3 ATS in the last 9 games.
• The Texans are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games on the road.
• The Texans are 0-10 SU in the last 10 games against NFC opponents.
• The Falcons are 4-11 ATS in the last 15 games.
• The Falcons are 5-1 SU in the last 6 games at home.
• The Falcons have hit the “under” in 8 of the last 10 games.
• The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 games against AFC opponents.

Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Prediction

Dont be surprised if this turns into an ugly, low-scoring offensive affair which is perhaps indicative by the 41.5 point betting total. With that being said, I am going to lay my trust in the Falcons this week. I think they are still a very talented team and have the luxury of playing at home with a clear advantageous match-up. Give me the Falcons here!

Jays Pick: Take Atlanta -120 ML