HOF Game Total & Pick ATS

In Defense of “Degenerates”

Earlier this week, I read an ongoing conversation about the Hall of Fame game. Bettors were discussing sides and totals, teams and trends, etc, when a troll dropped into the conversation and uttered an oft repeated slur – “You people who bet on the Hall of Fame game and preseason games are degenerate gamblers.”

I don’t personally know the condescending, morally superior, ant-at-a-picnic, party pooper who felt the need to impose his values on others, but I’d be willing to bet that he’s your typical, miserable misanthrope, the kind of loser who can’t stand to see other people having fun and enjoying life.

There is NOTHING wrong with betting on ANY event if you’re doing so for fun and entertainment value. And the possibility of a little financial reward at the end of it is just butter on the biscuit.

Gambling (within your means) is just like any other form of entertainment, like going to a movie or going out to dinner at a fine restaurant. It’s the same as spending money on hobbies like golfing, fishing or whatever you’re into. It’s a leisure time activity people participate in to have a little fun.

The Hall of Fame game is this weekend and it’s followed by the start of preseason games.
If after a hard day at work (and/or life in general) you’d like to put a couple bucks on a game, kick back on the couch, hoist a cold one and yell at your TV while rooting for your money, then feel free to do so.
It’s been about seven months since we could bet on and watch an NFL game. The Hall of Fame game is like the first drink of water for a guy who was stranded in the desert for a few days. If you want to bet it, then go for it.

It’s your money, don’t let anyone tell you how to spend it.
It’s your life, don’t let anyone tell you how to live it.

And if any son of a bitch who falsely believes he’s morally superior says you’re a degenerate gambler, tell him to kiss your ass and mind his own f’ing business.

I hadn’t planned on making a bet for the Hall of Fame game, but after viewing that internet conversation, I’ve had a change of heart.
I’m saying F U to the Debbie Downers who would lecture me and others on how to live.
And to be extra “degenerate” (degenerative?) I’m taking a side AND a total.

If I win, the proceeds go to Alex’s Lemonade Stand Foundation.
If I lose, I’ll send them the same amount I wagered.
My life, my money.
And I AM having fun.

Now that I’ve committed to a Hall of Fame game play (or, should BE committed for betting on a Hall of Fame game) let’s see what I can come up with.

The total for tonight’s game between the Texans and Bears looks low at 31′, but from a historical perspective, only four of the last ten Hall of Fame games have gone over tonight’s number.

And if you’re looking at a side, you’re going to have to come up with the winner because with the spread at -1’/-2 only one of the last ten games played was decided by one point.

DeMarco Ryans is coming into his second year running the show at Houston. He went 2-1 SU in his first preseason as an NFL head coach.
All three games stayed Under tonight’s number.

Matt Eberflus is entering his third year as head coach of the Chicago Bears. In 2022, the Bears went 3-0 in the preseason, last year they went 1-2. ALL six games went Over tonight’s number.

In his first season, Ryans not only made the playoffs, but he won the first-round wild card game against Cleveland before getting knocked out by Baltimore.

The picture is not so rosy on the other side of the ball. Eberflus is going into his third year.
He went 3-14 his first year and 7-10 last year.

On the bright side, you could say he showed improvement, winning more than twice as many games in his second year.
On the dark side (which is the reality side in the NFL) he finished with a losing record.
He failed to make the playoffs.
He finished in last place in the division.
As noted in my article from July 21st (suggesting ways to choose a team for an NFL Regular Season Win total) going into his third year as a head coach with two losing seasons behind him would officially qualify Eberflus as a head coach on the hot seat, a prime target for an Under on season wins.
For tonight though I’ll just target him for a loss.

Early indicators say that Houston’s second year quarterback CJ Stroud will not clock any time under center in the game. While Chicago would like to protect QB Caleb Williams they’re going to have to get the rookie some experience in live action before the regular season begins, so he may see one or two series.

Bench strength is what I’ll base my bets on for this game, and with quarterback being the position to focus on, I prefer Houston’s Davis Mills and Case Keenum over Chicago’s Tyson Bagent and Brett Rypien.

Being that it’s a preseason game, without any of my handicapping systems available to me, I’m just looking for some entertainment, so I’ll be happy to come out of this with a split.

Basically, I’m betting on Houston getting at least 15 points. If they get to 15 Chicago has to score 17 to beat me on the spread (Hou +1′) which would give me a win on the total and a split on the night.
Last year in preseason Houston scored 20, 3, and 17; two of three over the 15 I need from them tonight.
Last year in preseason Chicago surrendered 17, 17, and 21; all three over the number I need tonight.
That’s five of six with more than 15.
Of course that was then and this is now, there’s no guarantee that what happened last year will be relevant this year. Stat-wise it ain’t a lot, but there’s not much more you can do in a preseason bet.

Particular to sports betting it’s great because there are dozens of podcasters making home videos with their picks. And I find these to be a wealth of misinformation. (Don’t believe me? One of the podcasters said the game comes down to the quarterback battle of CJ Stroud vs Tyson Bagen. Stroud isn’t even going to play!)
I watched four different videos with predictions for the Hall of Fame game. I won’t name names but by far my favorite was from a guy who is sitting at a desk in his bedroom. In the background I see a dresser. On the top shelf he has bobblehead dolls from different NFL teams and stuffed animals.
Yes, an adult male with stuffed animals, which pretty much explains the single bed – the keyword here being “single” – in the background, with rumpled sheets on it (for God’s sake man if you’re going to shoot a video in your room at least make your bed!)
As I watched it I prayed, “Please let this guy be taking the side I’m betting against.”

And . . . he took Chicago -2.

Thank you, Jesus, thank you, Lord.

His reason for taking the Bears?
“The Texans don’t care about winning this game. The Bears have more to prove, they want it more.”
I don’t know how anyone can judge which team wants it more in any preseason game but I’m pretty sure that neither team cares about winning this one. Sure, they’d LIKE to win, but it’s not their objective. This is purely an exercise in talent evaluation to help the coaching staff decide who’s going to make their roster.

He also said, “This game will be about backups and Houston has the better backup QB’s so most bettors are taking the Texans, which is why I’m betting on Chicago.”
He then went on to hurl insults at the betting public, calling them stupid slobs.
I get the angle of playing against the public, I do it myself sometimes, but I don’t generalize them and insult them when I do.
He bases his statement about public money going on Houston based on information provided by sportsbooks – a BIG mistake (and a topic for another day, another article.)

Note – This was written on Tuesday when the numbers were readily available at Houston +2 and 31′. Now, Wednesday morning, those numbers are still available at a few houses but the commonly available number is +1′ and 32.
With the football season fast approaching if you haven’t already maximized your edge to win by opening up accounts at different books to get the best lines available NOW is the time to do so!!!

Update – just now, as I’m writing this, my screen is lighting up. This is crazy but a preseason game has just moved three points in one morning.
Houston is -1/-1′.

I have the Texans at +1′, but to be fair, I’ll use a number that most people can get.
I’ll grade this play at Houston -1.
And because I want to stay below the key number of 17 points for Houston I’m buying the total to 31. Now I need Houston to score 16 rather than 17 to get my split.

Houston -1
Hou/Chi Ov 31, -118