Handicapping Football Games Without Stats

by Predictem.com Staff

A few years ago, if someone had told me they handicapped NFL games without using stats, I would have called them crazy. I would have insisted that their chances of winning were as good as a coin flip. Boy, was I wrong.

Believe it or not, there are ways to win consistently in the long term without poring over box scores, team stats, and weekly publications to pick winners when betting on pro football.

Now that we’ve caught your interest, let’s dive in deeper:

Fading the Public and General Consensus

Each week, Las Vegas oddsmakers release the side and total for each NFL matchup. Bettors rush to place their bets, and contrary to popular belief, the action sometimes comes in evenly on games, but often, it is one-sided.

The key to fading the public consensus to find winners is to identify which games are getting one-sided action. One-sided action means all the betting is on one team, while the opponent sees very little of the betting handle. For example, imagine 80% of bettors are backing the Indianapolis Colts while only 20% are on the New Orleans Saints. In 2006, this might have been a realistic scenario with a game spread around -9.5.

This scenario raises a red flag. Either the sportsbooks have put out a bad line and risk getting crushed, or they have effectively set a “sucker line” to capitalize on public misperceptions.

When we notice this, we closely monitor the point spread for any movement. If the line moves in favor of the underdog—say, from -9.5 to -9 or -8.5—it indicates that sharp bettors (wiseguys) see value in the underdog and have placed significant bets on them.

This creates a prime opportunity to bet on the underdog, a strategy known as “collaring a barking dog.” These bets don’t win every time, but you’ll be surprised at how often they hit. Even when they lose, they tend not to lose by much.

In our opinion, this is a safe and effective way to bet on pro football.

How to Monitor Betting Action

To effectively use this strategy, you need to monitor betting action closely. Here’s how:

Track Public Consensus

Websites like Covers.com offer public consensus data, showing where the majority of bets are placed. This data helps identify one-sided games.

Watch for Reverse Line Movement

If the majority of bets are on one team, but the line moves in favor of the other, it signals sharp action. Sharps are experienced bettors who often spot value before the public does.

Analyze Line Movement

Line movement can indicate where the money is going. If a line moves significantly in one direction, it’s worth investigating why. This could be due to injury news, weather conditions, or sharp money influencing the market.

Understanding Sharps and Public Bettors

Sharps (Wiseguys)

  • Expertise: Sharps are professional bettors with deep knowledge of the sport and betting markets. They place large bets and can move lines with their action.
  • Value Hunting: They look for value bets where they believe the odds are skewed in their favor. A great example of such a scenario would be a nationally televised game like Sunday Night Football or Monday Night Football. The bookies know the public is likely going to bet the favorite and the over, so we’ll often see inflated point spreads on these games due to the sportsbooks building in an advantage by squeezing the general public for an extra point or half point. (This isn’t always the case though)   

Public Bettors

  • Recreational: Public bettors (aka: Squares) are typically recreational players who bet for fun. Their bets are often based on popular opinion, team loyalty, or recent performance.
  • Trends: Public money often follows recent trends and high-profile teams, leading to potential overvaluation. There’s an old saying that says “The trend is your friend.” This couldn’t be further from the truth!

Practical Example: Analyzing a Game

Let’s say the Dallas Cowboys are playing the New York Giants. The consensus data shows that 75% of the public money is on the Cowboys at -6.5. However, the line moves to -6. This reverse line movement suggests that sharp money is coming in on the Giants.

Steps to Analyze:

  1. Public Consensus: Check that the majority of bets are on the Cowboys.
  2. Line Movement: Note that the line moved from -6.5 to -6, despite heavy public betting on the Cowboys.
  3. Investigate Reasons: Look for reasons why sharps might favor the Giants. This could be due to an overlooked matchup advantage, key injuries on the Cowboys, or poor weather conditions favoring the underdog.

Key Takeaways

Our “fading the 80% pick” strategy was just an example. We start watching for reverse line movement around the 60% mark. The higher the percentage, the better the opposite side tends to perform. The elusive 80%ers are gold when they appear.

This isn’t the only way to handicap a pro football game, but it’s a strategy that works long-term and is perfect for those with little time to study but still want in on the action.

Until next time, good luck with your NFL bets!