Green Bay vs. San Francisco Point Spread Prediction

San Francisco 49ers (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS)
NFL Football Week 12
Date/Time: Sunday, November 24, 2024 at 4:25PM EST
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
TV: Fox

The San Francisco 49ers take on the Green Bay Packers in a big NFC showdown from Lambeau Field on Sunday. It’s especially big for the Niners, who, despite being in the mix from a divisional standpoint, need to start making some headway at just 5-5, losers of a 20-17 divisional game at home last week to the Seahawks. They look to atone for that this week in a difficult road-spot against a Green Bay team that has somewhat quietly started taking form, winning their fifth out of 6 games against the Bears on Sunday, 20-19. Will the 49ers come alive, or will the Packers benefit from having a less-than-ideal version of their conference rivals surface on Sunday?

Personnel Issues

It’s unclear this early in the week how serious the reported right shoulder soreness is for San Francisco QB Brock Purdy. Obviously, any position on the 49ers would need to be accompanied by positive news on that front. On the good side, the Niners stand to get TE George Kittle back into the fold this week. For the Packers, the coast is clear on offense for the most part, though CB Jaire Alexander is dealing with more issues after having to leave the last game. All this and more will be clearer heading into game time.

Can San Francisco Respond?

It’s deep enough in the season to start figuring that not everything we’ve seen is a mirage. Despite some misfortune on the personnel front and otherwise, the Niners aren’t really the same team. The offense isn’t as potent, Purdy has been a tick off his previous form, and a defense that was once feared is no longer. That’s not to say they aren’t capable of snapping back to close to top form, but it’s not something you want to chase the entire season, either. At some point, they are who they are. I don’t think Jordan Love and this Green Bay offense have anything to fear. The 49ers defense certainly haven’t been bad, allowing 20 points in each of their last two games to Seattle and Tampa Bay. Maybe they’re starting to get into late-season form. Either way, this road-test against a Green Bay team that is winning should give us more-definitive answers.

Assuming, of course, that Purdy is good to go and close to 100%, some things could start coming together for the 49ers, albeit in a tough spot on the road. At some point, you’d have to imagine RB Christian McCaffrey gets up to full speed. Deebo Samuel is due for a big game. George Kittle is someone who can do big damage. And while losing Brandon Aiyuk was bad, Jauan Jennings has been excellent filling in this season. In the vast majority of games of late, the Green Bay defense has been solid, but not quite to the point where it would be odd for the defending conference champions to get their offense untracked, as desperation starts to creep into the equation a bit.

The Hazards in Undervaluing Green Bay

The Packers are an easy team to overlook week-to-week despite their recent overall success. Their true strength lies in their coaching and overall competence—things that don’t leap off the screen. On defense, they have a great corner in Alexander but no real big playmaker or big-time pass-rusher. Josh Jacobs has come in and performed well in spots. But Jordan Love’s 16 TD/11 INT stat-line isn’t exactly thrilling, with the bulk of the aerial production spread out to no less than a half-dozen players. But look at the results—a 6-2 finish to last season and a 7-3 start to this one, sandwiching a postseason run where they came a hair from playing in the conference title game. Some forget the turnaround this team has made since being at 3-6 last season heading into week 11. Now on a roll of five wins in their last six games, with that loss coming to another team on a roll in Detroit, it’s worth pondering whether this is a team that’s really starting to get into a groove.

A Packers team that is starting to really dial in their winning formula might be all wrong for a Niners team that is laboring to get back to where they once were. And where they once were and what they’re now striving to rediscover was still only good enough to ever-so-slightly beat the Packers last postseason on a fourth-quarter comeback where they needed some things to break their way. Even a peak San Fran squad is no cinch against these Packers, particularly not at Lambeau, where the Niners might get a little taste of that first late-season cold, though obviously not what could come later should these teams meet again meet in Green Bay.

Lay the Points

The idea of a desperate Niners team finding some answers this week is scary for Green Bay backers, as urgency can count for something in these spots. I still can’t help but think there’s a bit of disrespect in the spread, with the storyline benefiting the Niners being understandable. It’s just that 2.5 points as of press time seems to be overvaluing the notion of urgency on the part of the 49ers, as it didn’t help them this past Sunday. And it also sells the Packers a bit short, considering their form and how they haven’t forgotten what happened in the playoffs. It’s not like this is some spot to catch them sleeping. I see the Packers being right in this and getting to the line ahead. I’ll take Green Bay.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Green Bay Packers minus 2.5 points.