Green Bay Packers (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. New York Jets (5-1 SU, 5-1
ATS), Week 8 NFL, 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, October 31, 2010, New
Meadowlands Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J., TV: FOX
by Badger of Predictem.com
Betting Odds: GB +6/NYJ -6
Over/Under Total: 42.5
The Green Bay Packers will try to keep momentum on their side this
Sunday when they pack their backs for their first visit to New
Meadowlands Stadium, but in order to do that theyll have to upset
the New York Jets on their new home turf in an anticipated NFC-AFC
showdown on Fox.
The Packers officially exorcised the demons of Brett Favre last week
with their nail-biting 28-24 victory over the NFC North rival
Minnesota Vikings. As razor-thin as the Packers defense is right now
due to injury, they were still able to harass Favre into three
interceptions (one for TD) and then hold off a late Favre comeback in
the victory.
But with little time to lick their wounds the Packers head to the Big
Apple to face a rested and rolling Jets team that used their bye last
week to get healthy for the meat of their season. The Jets went on
the road to Denver last time out and grinded out another Jet-pretty
24-20 win, but with two weeks to game-plan for this one the Jets
could steamroll the injury-ridden Packers and leave them wondering
what hit them.
The oddsmakers out in Las Vegas seem to think the rested Jets are ready for take off, staking them as 6-point favorites at home on
Sunday. Even the legion of Packers bettors cant seem to make the
point spread move, as they are only a handful of sportsbooks that are down to 5.5-points after the early steam at the window.
The over/under total opened at 42.5 and has also remained steady at
that number through early wagering. There are a few 42s and a few
token 43 (at 5Dimes), but for the most part its hung on
the opening number of 42.5.
Offensively there arent too many secrets in this game.
The Jets are going to look at the Packers decimated defensive line
and salivate, because they are already the 2nd-ranked rushing offense
in the league at 159.2 yards per game. The Packers are listing
starting ends Ryan Pickett and Cullen Jenkins as questionable, and
backups Mike Neal, Justin Harrell are already on the IR so they were
forced to claim Howard Green off of waivers from the Jets this week.
Green and C.J. Wilson, a former practice player a week ago, will see
a lot of snaps against LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene. A lot of
snaps.
Green Bay would like to loosen up the Jets defense with the run, but
when you combine their rushing offense (99.3 ypg 20th) with the
Jets run defense (90 ypg 7th), its hard to figure out where or how
that will happen.
Instead the Packers will likely try and spread the Jets defense out with 4- and 5-receiver sets and let Aaron Rodgers try and pick out
mismatches against the Jets secondary. That will open up Rodgers to a
lot of hits and blitz reads because one thing is for sure, Jets coach
Rex Ryan will not allow Rodgers to feel comfortable in the pocket if
he starts to find a rhythm.
All of that is fairly obvious though, so watch the Jets throw it with
Mark Sanchez 50 times while the Packers try and grind it out with 50
runs.
The last time these two teams met on the field was back in 2006, a
Chad Pennington-led 38-10 victory for the Jets in Lambeau Field as 1-
point underdogs. In fact the Jets are both 3-0 straight up and 3-0
against the spread in the last three meetings with the Packers
(dating back to 2000). Only one of those three games was played in
New York, a 42-17 Jets win as 1.5-point favorites back in 2002.
One betting trend that lights up like a Christmas tree in this
matchup is the Jets 7-1 ATS record in the last eight games following
a bye week. The Jets are also 5-0 ATS in their last five since not
covering in the opener, and 6-1 ATS against teams with winning records.
The Packers are traditionally a covering machine, especially on the
road where they are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 games away from
Lambeau. They are just 1-4 ATS since the Buffalo game back in mid-
September though, covering for the first time in a while last week
against the Vikings.
Badgers Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Im pretty sure the Packers defense will not be able
to handle the Jets running game all game long, but the Pack and
Rodgers are good at finding single coverage on the blitz and should
be able to put points on the board too. Im playing it safe and
taking the over of 42.5, in what I think will end as a 28-20 or 31-21
Jet victory.
