Green Bay Packers (7-3 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS)
NFL Football Week 12
Date and Time: November 23 1pm ET
Where: TCF Bank Stadium
TV: FOX
by Evergreen, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: GB -10/MINN +10
Over/Under Total: 48.5
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There is still plenty of season left for struggling teams to turn things around but this time of year is when the good teams put the pedal down and start fighting for those home playoff games. The Green Bay Packers head to Minnesota this weekend to take on the Vikings and no one has looked better than the Pack of late. Green Bay has posted 50+ points in consecutive weeks and are now even with the Lions atop the NFC North. Minnesota is on playoff life-support at 4-6 but every game for them is a chance to take a step forward with a young quarterback and this is probably the biggest game they have left on their schedule. Division games can be weird, rivalry games can be odd, too, lets take a look at Packers v. Vikings.
The online betting sites are in good agreement on this one and the Packers are a 10-point favorite in the early betting with the over/under at 48 and a half. Green Bay is 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games overall but has managed just a 1-6 ATS mark in their last seven against opponents with a sub-.500 record. Minnesota has six ATS wins in their last eight games at TCF Stadium and the home team has won six of the last eight against the spread in this series. The favorite has a 5-2 ATS record in the last seven meetings.
Im not really sure there is much more to say about the Packers that cant be said by the 55-14 and 53-20 wins they notched in the last two week. Green Bay took down Minnesota by a 42-10 mark in week 5 this year and that game was essentially over at the half with the Packers out to a 28-0 lead. Aaron Rodgers is poised to be the NFL MVP based on his 28/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 120.1 QB rating. He has plenty of weapons at his disposal and the Packers have ascended to the top of the NFL offensive heap, averaging a league-best 33 points per game. The Vikings have an underrated defense but they will have their hands full.
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One thing is clear for Minnesota. Adrian Peterson will not be returning to the field anytime soon. Barring some sort of legal maneuver, Peterson is suspended for the remainder of the year. That has been the status quo this year and most of the offensive gameplan for the Vikings is centered on the development of Teddy Bridgewater. The rookie signal-caller is gaining a bit of confidence with at least one TD throw in four consecutive games but the consistency is lacking and there isnt much punch to the offense at this point. The Vikes are 12th in rushing but rank outside the top-25 in passing yards and total yards while averaging just 18 points per game. That isnt enough to stress the Packers defense or disrupt Rodgers current momentum so something out of the norm will have to be there for Minnesota to stay in this game.
Green Bay is 29th against the run and the Vikings can attack that part of the defense with Jerick McKinnon. The talented youngster averages 4.9 yards per carry but has been sorely underused to this point. Minnesota would do well to try and let McKinnon grind out yards and keep Rodgers off the field. The Vikings simply cannot get too far behind if they want to stay in this one as Bridgewater isnt at the point where he can manage a high volume of throws and he doesnt have much to work with as Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson are average at best. Kyle Rudolph is back from injury and should help out against a Green Bay defense that can be attacked in the middle of the field.
Rodgers alone is imposing enough but with Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb playing at an elite level, the offense is nearing juggernaut status. That duo has combined for 1,777 receiving yards and 19 touchdowns and thats just two guys. Davante Adams and Andrew Quarless chip in to keep defenses honest and Eddie Lacy has seen more and more room to run as teams scheme against Rodgers. The Packers defense is far from elite, but how good do you have to be when all you have to do is keep them under 50? Julius Peppers has hit another gear in his first year with the Pack and he enters the week with two interceptions, five sacks, two forced fumbles and six defended passes. He and Clay Matthews are freelancing right now and making it rough on the opposing QB.
Sometimes you have to go against the overwhelming trends but this game is not one of those times. The Packers are too good right now and have too much figured out to think that the Vikings are in their weight class, even at home. Green Bay is healthy and the last time Rodgers looked this good, he won a Superbowl and went 15-1 the next season. Minnesota doesnt have enough playmakers to put points on the board and their defense isnt the 85 Bears. I doubt anyone would have been surprised if Green Bay was a 13 or 14 point favorite so Im not sweating the ten. Green Bay 35 Minnesota 13
Evergreen’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: GREEN BAY