Green Bay Packers(2-2SU,1-3ATS) vs.Indianapolis Colts(1-2SU,1-2ATS)
NFL Week4
Date/Time:Sunday, October 7/1pm ET
Where:Lucas Oil Stadium
TV:FOX
byEvergreen,Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread:GB -7/Ind +7
Over/Under Total:48
It is hard to believe we have passed the quarter pole of the NFL season but we have and on the more intriguing Week 5 matchups has the Green Bay Packers on their way to Indianapolis to face the Colts.The Pack has seen plenty of ups and downs in just four games and will look for a win to start what is a three game road trip.Indy is just three weeks into the Andrew Luck administration and the results have been pretty good but the overall record stands at just 1-2.This will certainly be the toughest match on paper for the young signal caller but the Colts have had two weeks to prepare after a Week 4 bye.
Green Bay opened as a seven point favorite and the line hasnt had much movement although you can find Indy at +7.5 at plenty of online betting sites and the over/under total for the game is 48.
No matter what the outcome, Im thinking Packer fans would just take a clean gamefrom the officials after their last two contests have been littered with horrible calls.Green Bay escaped with a 28-27 win versus the Saints in Week 4 after the refs missed offensive pass interference early and a clear fumble late and we certainly do not need to revisit the Seattle scarecrow call.The Packer defense showed some major limitations in allowing Drew Brees to throw for 446 yards and will now face another good passing attack as the Colts are 11thin league with 266 yards through the air on average.Davon House is questionable for Sunday with a shoulder injury, further limiting Green Bays secondary depth.
There isnt much to say about Indy that doesnt surround the play of Luck.The rookie has looked good at times while throwing for five scores in just three games but has also had his struggles in throwing for just over 53% completions and four interceptions.Reggie Wayne has been Lucks security blanket but someone else will need to step up and take pressure off Luck while facing a Packers defense that is top-10 in both passing and total yards allowed.The Colts defense has looked decent against the pedestrian offenses of Minnesota and Jacksonville but gave up 41 to the Bears and now faces a Green Bay unit that is hitting its stride.Dwight Freeney is questionable after a high ankle sprain and his absence would be a tough blow this week.
Aaron Rodgers finally had an MVP type game last week with four scores and 319 passing yards and he did so without Greg Jennings for much of the game.Jennings is listed as questionable for Sunday but Green Bay has plenty of receivers in case he cant go including Randall Cobb who has developed a nice role in the offense.James Jones steps into Jennings actual spot in the lineup and grabbed two touchdowns against the Saints.The Packers seem at least willing to try the run a bit more this year with Cedric Benson and his play takes a little steam out of a pass rush that has been problematic for the Packers at times this year.
With two weeks to prepare, the Colts should have a fair shot at scoring points against the Packers defense but they will undoubtedly scheme to eliminate Clay Matthews from visiting the Colt backfield.A good game by Donald Brown and the offensive line would go a long way to giving Luck some time to hit receivers in the secondary, especially down the seam and Green Bay has allowed production to the tight end so watch for Coby Fleener to have a good game.
Neither of these teams have run the ball well over the first part of the season and I expect Indy to have worked on that during the bye week to take pressure off Luck and to keep the ball out of Rodgers hands.If the Colts can run successfully and put some points up, this could be a close game throughout but they cannot afford to get down too big early as the Green Bay defense is best when opposing teams have to throw.A home dog coming off a bye week is always worth taking a look at. Combine that with the fact that the Packers haven’t exactly been playing lights out football and all indications point to taking the the home underdog.
EvergreensPick to Cover the Point Spread:Indianapolis Colts +7.
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