Green Bay Packers (6-6-1 SU, 5-8 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)
NFL Week 15
Date and Time: Sunday, December 15, 4:25pm ET
Where: AT&T Stadium
TV: FOX
by Evergreen, Pro Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: GB +7/DAL -7
Over/Under Total: 48
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If you like to bet Green Bay Packers games, you know how
frustrating that process has been with the fluid injury status of Aaron
Rodgers over the last few weeks. The Pack travels to Dallas this week to
take on the Cowboys and, once again, at time of print, there is an absence of solid betting
information due to Mr. Rodgers collarbone injury. The game itself is important
regardless of who suits up for the Packers as both teams are teetering on
playoff contention but the loser here will be in big trouble in that regard. Update: Rodgers is OUT.
The whole injury saga with Rodgers has turned into a bit of a circus with some local media reporting that a rift has been exposed between the head coach and quarterback, in part over the injury. Aaron Rodgers has made comments on his own radio show that were in direct disagreement with things that Mike McCarthy stated previously in the week, sometimes in the same day to the same reporters. That doesnt really mean much but the word is that Rodgers has no intention of playing until he is absolutely 100%, a condition that may not be met at all until the playoffs, should Green Bay advance to that stage.
So, lets look at this with Flynn as the starter. Flynn bounced back nicely last week from the Thanksgiving disaster and made enough plays on a chilly day in Lambeau to beat the Falcons. That was the first win for the Pack since No. 12 went out and they have looked better on offense as Flynn has had more time with full practice reps. The offensive line is still in shambles so Flynn is often getting sacked but he has been able to find Jordy Nelson and the rest of the receivers enough to gain some consistency in moving the ball. Eddie Lacy is proving he is one of the toughest runners in the NFL but the absence of the dynamic pass game has let defenses focus on Lacy and his yards per carry has dipped to 3.9 on average. That should improve this week as the Cowboys are dead last in overall defense and fourth worst in run-stopping.
The Packer offense might be good enough to put up points against the toothless Cowboy D but Green Bay has struggled mightily on defense as well, especially as teams have been able to stay balanced with the run and pass with Green Bay no longer a threat to blowout the opposition. The Packers have a ton of injuries on defense but poor tackling and the inability to turn the ball over has hurt them the most as the defense has slipped outside the top-20 in yards and points allowed. There probably wont be many stops in this game period so a key turnover or special teams play might spur either team in what looks to be a shootout.
STOP WASTING MONEY! STOP BETTING
ON GAMES AT -110 ODDS; START LAYING ONLY -105 AT 5DIMES
Dallas should go right at the middle of the Green Bay defense, both with the run and the pass up the seam as the linebacking corps for the Pack is the most suspect of that unit. Tony Romo to Jason Witten should be a theme and DeMarco Murray is set up to have a tremendous game. Murray is averaging 5.3 yards per carry and should be used frequently as Dallas looks to control the pace against an undermanned team. The Cowboys have too often left Murray out the gameplan after early success but Green Bay shouldnt be getting out to a big lead at any point and the run game and Murray as a receiver should be Romos best friends. Dez Bryant will get his grabs and could go over 1,000 yards receiving in this one with a strong performance, he enters the week with 908 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Neither team has paid well of late with Green Bay winless against the spread in the last six games and Dallas just 1-4 ATS in the last five. Obviously, a surprise announcement that Rodgers is in the lineup will shake the point spread all over the place but this one looks like a high scoring affair with an edge to Dallas as their offense looks to be at full strength. They couldnt stop a backup quarterback last week in Chicago but I think there is a better chance for the Cowboys to stop Flynn, Lacy and Nelson, at least enough to make them punt once and that might be all it takes. Dallas 31 Green Bay 24
Evergreen’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: As noted above, I feel that this game will land right on the number. I like the OVER as both defenses are putrid.