Projected Spread Winner for a Classic Rivalry – Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Sunday morning, the 6-3 Green Bay Packers travel to Chicago to face the 4-5 Bears. The Pack are still alive for a playoff spot, but the cellar dweller Bears are already at the taxidermist.

I know Chicago fans aren’t going to like this but a large part of the reason for another failed season is their quarterback, Justin Fields Junior.
Just like his predecessor, Caleb Williams holds onto the ball too long. In their last game, against New England, the second coming of Mitch Trubisky was sacked nine times.
NOT a typo – NINE times!

Chicago has the same problem it’s always had: an O line that can’t protect the quarterback.
NINE times!
You can only blame the quarterback holding on to the ball too long for a few sacks, but for NINE you have to admit your O line couldn’t prevent Karen Carpenter from cutting to the front of a buffet line (okay that’s probably not funny; certainly not nice.)

The Bears last touchdown was three weeks ago and in their last three outings they’re averaging just 9 PPG. And now the Pack comes to town, averaging 26 points per game while allowing just 21, the difference just happens to be the same as the point spread in the game.

GB’s 6-3 is a shiny-looking record that would put them in first place in some divisions, but not the NFC North.
The 8-1 Lions and 7-2 Vikings are both ahead of the Packers, which means winning the division is not in the cards. The Packers are going to have to scrap their way to be eligible for a wild card spot, and with San Fran, Detroit, and Minnesota left on their schedule, they can’t afford to let up against a weaker opponent like Chicago.

But my favorite part about this ‘cap of mine is an underrated and often overlooked handicapping factor – diversions. As a handicapper, I love it when Dramarama hovers above a team, and I’ve got two distraction factions in play on this one – locker room squabbling and a head coach on the hot seat.

The grumblings in the locker room are coming from the dedicated players calling out the slackers they feel aren’t putting in the necessary effort. Finger pointing is not conducive to a unified and focused team.
And after three straight losses guaranteeing another season without making the playoffs, head coach Matt Eberflus, now 14-29 in his career as the Bears head coach, is on a Hades-hot seat.
Near the end of last week’s 19-3 loss to New England, the hometown Bear’s fans were chanting, “Fire ‘Flus, Fire ‘ Flus!”

Players who aren’t playing very well to begin with are highly unlikely to turn in a top effort for a guy who they know is not going to be their boss in the very near future.

And then there’s this – perfection is always a nice thing, right?
Matt LaFleur is 10-0 SU against the Bears. And of even more importance to bettors – he’s a perfect 10-0 ATS.

I smell something rotten coming out of Chicago, and it’s not from the slaughterhouses. It’s quit, coming from the Bears locker room.
Gimme Green Bay.

When to Buy Recommendation

The board is split between -5 and -5′.
I learned my lesson from last week after not buying Minnesota at -5 when I had the chance (and they lost by six.)
I bought this one today while there are still plenty of -5 available.

Recap: 0-1-0
Record: 9-9.5

Review: took a loss due to a bad Buy on my part with Minnesota (although their offense didn’t help me out at all. Vikings held the Jags to just seven points and I STILL couldn’t get a win??!!)
Got a Push in my other game thanks to buying the hook off Detroit, who came back from being down 23-7 at halftime to winning 26-23.