Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers Point Spread Pick

Green Bay Packers (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3, 5-3), 11/12/23
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Nov. 12
Where: Acrisure Field
TV: CBS

Betting Odds

Point spread: GB +3/Pitt -3
Money line: GB +150/Pitt -180
Total: 38

The Steelers own three wins over their last four games, while the Packers just won for the first time in over a month, heading into Sunday afternoon’s inter-conference bout in Pittsburgh.

So why are the Steelers only favored by a field goal?

NFL Betting Odds

The Week 10 NFL betting market opened Pittsburgh at -3.5 over Green Bay, with an over/under of right around 37. Early betting action then shaved that line to -3 and bumped that total to 38.

Packers-Steelers Betting Preview

Green Bay just snapped a four-game losing skid with a 20-3 win at home over the shorthanded Rams last Sunday. The Packers took the lead for good with a touchdown early in the second quarter, led 7-3 at the half, then slowly pulled away in the second half and covered at -4.

But Green Bay shouldn’t get too excited; they didn’t exactly look great against a Los Angeles team playing with its backup QB.

The Packers out-gained the Rams 391-187 and won the ground battle 184-68. But Green Bay also botched at least a couple of chances to score more points with fumbles and penalties.

The Packers opened 2-1 this season, then lost to Detroit, Las Vegas, Denver and Minnesota. A couple of those games were close, but the common themes were the inability to score points in the first halves and to get off the field on defense.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is 3-1, both SU and ATS its last four times out after topping Tennessee last Thursday 20-16. The Steelers drove the opening possession of the game 75 yards to a touchdown but trailed 13-10 at the half. They still trailed 16-13 late in the fourth but took the lead with a touchdown with four minutes left and hung on from there.

Pittsburgh got out-gained by the Titans 340-326. So the Steelers still have yet to out-gain an opponent this season. But they did out-rush Tennessee 166-105.

Two weeks ago, Pittsburgh lost to Jacksonville 20-10. But just before that they beat the Rams 24-17 and just before that they beat Baltimore 17-10.

Somehow, a team that ranks 29th in the League in total offense and 31st in total defense is 5-3 and owns the No. 5 spot in the AFC playoff standings.

These teams last met two seasons ago, a 27-17 Green Bay victory. Some guy named Rodgers quarterbacked the Pack that day against Big Ben for the Steelers.

These two teams have played two common opponents so far this season, the Raiders and the Rams. Pittsburgh played those foes to 2-0 SU and ATS but -42 yards per game, Green Bay to 1-1 both SU and ATS and +105 YPG.

On the injury front, the Packers are banged-up along the offensive line and on defense. Bettors might want to check later reports before getting down on this game.

Totals Report

The Under is 5-3 in Packers games this season, which are averaging 40 total points.

The Under is 7-1 in Steelers games this season, which are averaging 37 points.

Through Week 9, the Under is a lopsided 83-53 in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Green Bay won a game last week, but the problems remain: they’re not running the ball, they’re committing too many penalties, and the defense can’t get off the field. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh doesn’t put up great numbers. It just wins games, five out of its last seven, in fact. Plus, the Steelers have TJ Watt. We like Pittsburgh, minus the points.

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