Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos Week 7 Prediction ATS

Green Bay Packers (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (1-5 SU, 0-5-1 ATS)

Week 7 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, October 22, 2023 at 4:25 PM EDT

Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado

TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: GB -1/DEN +1 (Bovada)

Money Line: GB -105, DEN -115

Over/Under Total: 45

The Green Bay Packers come to Mile High on Sunday for a Week 7 showdown with the Denver Broncos. Denver fell to 1-5 on Sunday with a 19-8 loss to the Chiefs. They are back home this week, facing a rested Green Bay team that had last week off to rest their bones. Prior to that, the Packers had fallen to 2-3 with a 17-13 loss on the road to the Raiders. Who can get it done this week at Mile High?

State of the Packers

The high-profile failings of the Broncos only bring to light how off the radar the Packers have been, accentuated by coming off a bye-week. So far, they lost to Detroit by 14, along with four other close games of which they won two. They will move on without left tackle David Bakhtiari, which is a major blow. But maybe they get RB Aaron Jones back this week, as they need all the offensive firepower they can get. And after a pretty decent start, QB Jordan Love has been pretty bad, throwing five picks in his last two games, along with only one TD. He hasn’t been terribly accurate overall, but he’s scrappy and shifty, able to make things happen in certain spots. But maybe that bye-week came in time to help regroup an offense that has gone a bit sideways the last few weeks, also getting Jones healthier, whose absence is a big reason for the downturn.

Other than not doing very well against the Lions in Detroit, which isn’t an easy spot for any defense, the Packers’ “D” hasn’t been that bad. They weren’t very effective in Atlanta, either, but we’ve generally seen them be at least slightly better than advertised, particularly against the run and with guys like Rashan Gary, Kenny Clark, and others, they can get after the QB a little bit. We’ve seen the defense score already, and S Rudy Ford has two picks through five games, as they can be a bit disruptive against mistake-prone offenses, something that could come in handy this week against Denver.

Tempering the Negativity Surrounding Denver

Any bad things you say about the Broncos from a bottom-line sense are likely correct. This is going terribly. Still, they are playing better the last few weeks. On one hand, that means nothing coming off a 70-20 loss to Miami in that memorable flop. Of course, it’s going to get better. And coming from off the pace to beat a woeful Chicago, losing to a bad Jets team by ten, and then KC by 11 aren’t altogether promising results. But to overcome a 28-7 deficit to beat Chicago and going into Arrowhead and allowing only 19 points to the Chiefs does count for something.

It didn’t take hold last week in what was Russell Wilson’s worst showing of the year, but the Broncos have been moving the ball. The offense is a giant mish-mosh where the supposed top contributors have been lost in the mix, as anyone is liable to step up in a given week. It’s not an appealing unit to get behind, but they can be effective. RB Javonte Williams is slowly starting to look like himself again. And let’s not neglect a defense that held the Chiefs to one TD at home, standing firm on a number of occasions. Everybody is down on Denver right now, so going out of our way to overstate their condition isn’t likely to get us closer to covering any spreads.

What to Expect

On one hand, Green Bay has been in some more-routine games, got their bye-week, and appears to be the less-dysfunctional football product at this time. While out of conference and away from home in what can still be a tricky road-trip even with Denver at just 1-5, maybe they’ll be a little fresher. Denver has really been put through the ringer the last handful of weeks with a series of punishing games, some ultra-demoralizing sequences, and a string of losses. They land at home in week 7 with a thud, practically out of it already and maybe sucking wind a little bit at this point.

I think the Broncos are still out there trying. Coach Sean Payton hasn’t lost the room yet. But that also goes for the Packers, and they might just be able to enter this spot with a little more positive energy. While nothing is concrete as of press time, the return of Jones should give the Green Bay offense a boost in what certainly looks to be a good matchup for their run-game against this Denver defense. If Jones is put to good use, along with the runs of Love, and Dillon, it could open things up for Love aerially.

Take the Home Underdog

This could be a spot where we see some of the small signs of progress shown by Denver the last few weeks start to better materialize. Green Bay’s defense isn’t special (especially vs. the run) and that goes ditto for their offense, providing Denver with a matchup at home where they can maybe see things start to go their way a little more. They’re also getting healthier. I like the Broncos at +1.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Denver Broncos to beat the Packers at home.