Giants vs. Redskins Pick ATS for Week 11

New York Giants (2-8 SU, 2-7-1 ATS) vs. Washington Commanders (4-6 SU, 5-4-1 ATS)

NFL Football Week 11

Date/Time: Sunday November 19th, 2023. 1:00PM (EST)

Where: FedEx Field Landover, MD

TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: NYG +10/WAS -10

Moneyline: Gmen +360/Commanders -450

Total: 37.5

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Last week, I made a bold prediction that the Dallas Cowboys should be taken with confidence despite laying one of the biggest spreads (-17) of the entire season against the New York Giants. Not only did the Cowboys cover the large margin but they made it look easy in a 49-17 blowout. The Giants have been absolutely decimated with injuries this season and are down to 3rd string QB Tommy DeVito. Last week, the team’s frustrations appeared to build even higher as several players voiced their frustration and that will be the setting this Sunday when Giants travel to face the Washington Commanders at FedEx Field.

The Commanders are on the heels of a close but disappointing 29-26 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Despite showing signs of success on the offensive side of the football, the Commanders dropped their 6th loss in the last 8 games which includes a 14-7 loss to the G-Men back in week 7. Despite the struggles and the hot seat surrounding Head Coach Ron Rivera, this week’s spread will be the largest Washington has been favored since Rivera took over the reins back in 2020. In fact, this week’s betting spread of 10 points marks just the 2nd time the Commanders have been favored by more than a touchdown since October of 2017!

New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders Betting Analysis

Let’s face the facts, there is nothing overly imposing by either team in this match-up. While the Giants have been plagued with quarterback injuries and unable to move the football through the air, RB Saquon Barkely has not been able to do much on the ground and that is likely an issue with how he has been utilized in recent weeks due to game script. The Giants star running back has been limited to just 29 carries over the last two games in the midst of blowout losses. However, I would not be surprised if Barkely becomes much more involved this week against a more evenly matched opponent. Not to mention, the Commanders’ defense that ranks 21st in the league against the run.

For the Commanders, QB Sam Howell has been surprisingly strong this season passing for 2,783 yards with 17 touchdowns and just 9 picks. In last week’s close loss to Seattle, RB Brian Robinson provided a big boost to the offensive attack with 119 yards in the receiving game, including two big plays that led to Commanders touchdowns. The Commanders have been struggling with their production out of the backfield and I think that will be an important aspect to this contest. The Giants’ defense is not nearly as bad as the stats may suggest. Instead, the Giants time of possession it was has led to the disastrous defensive numbers. If Washington can get some help from the running game, this will probably be a game they control from start to finish. If that does not happen, it’s anybody’s guess based on the hot/cold streaks the Commanders consistently produce in the passing attack.

New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders Betting Trends

• Washington is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington’s last 9 games at home
• Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
• NY Giants is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Giants’s last 8 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 16 of NY Giants’s last 24 games when playing Washington
• NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington

New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders Betting Prediction

Before I get into my prediction, let me remind everyone that both of these teams are extremely inconsistent so perhaps we downgrade our confidence level for this pick. With that being said, I just don’t find many reasons why the Commanders should be laying the points here. Rivera is very conservative when playing ahead and I don’t think the Giants need but perhaps two scores to keep this one within reach. As a result, I am going to take the points here.

Jay’s Pick: Take the Giants +10