Free Pick: Washington Redskins vs. New York Giants Preview

When: October 28, 2018, 1:00 PM EST
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
TV: FOX
Point Spread: WAS -1/NYG +1 (Best Odds)
Over/Under: 42

Takeaways From Week 7

The Redskins moved to 4-2 and first place in the NFC East after a 20-17 victory over the division rival Dallas Cowboys Sunday in which they bottled up Ezekiel Elliot and held the Cowboys’ running game to 73 total yards.

The Washington defense lived up to its billing Sunday, dominating the Cowboys for virtually the entire game, save for a 49-yard touchdown pass from Dak Prescott to Michael Gallup in the second quarter. Elliot, who torched the Redskins for an average of 110 yards in their three previous meetings, was held to a season-low 33 yards rushing. The Skins also forced two Dallas turnovers, including a strip-sack of Prescott at the goal line that resulted in a Washington touchdown with 4:55 left on the clock.

On the other side of the ball, the Washington offense was extremely lucky to be bailed out by the defense, as they didn’t do enough to get much credit for the win. Alex Smith struggled once again, completing 14-of-28 for 178 yards and one touchdown and botched a number of throws that could have netted points, including one on a rollout in the third quarter where he missed a wide-open Jeremy Sprinkle. Adrian Peterson was the lone bright spot, carrying 24 times for 99 yards.

Meanwhile, the Giants lost their fourth consecutive game 23-20 to the Atlanta Falcons Monday night to drop to 1-6 after a failed two-point conversion in the fourth quarter thwarted their comeback bid.

New York’s red zone struggles continued Monday night. They now rank 29th in the NFL in red zone offense at 42% and have been dead last in the league over the past three games at 30%. Against Atlanta’s paper-thin defense, it was more of the same. In five trips to the red zone, they crossed the goal line just twice, with the most memorable red zone flub coming on a fourth down in the first half when Eli Manning bypassed a soon to be wide open Odell Beckham Jr. for a back across the body pass to backup tight end Scott Simonson. The pass was of course broken up, and the Giants turned it over on downs. That makes them 2-for-8 in the red zone in the past two games.

The offensive line also had a disappointing night. Saquon Barkley might be the most dynamic running back in the league, but against the Falcons’ leaky rushing defense, which ranks towards the bottom third of the league, he posted just 43 yards on 14 carries. Manning also felt the brunt of a woeful offensive line. He was sacked four times and hit a total of nine times. Needless to say, left tackle Nate Solder, whom the Giants acquired in March for $62 million isn’t living up to his end.

The Historical

As you might expect, these two teams have quite the history. They’ve met 172 times with their first meeting coming way back in 1932 when the Washington Redskins were the Boston Redskins. The Giants lead the series 100-68-4, and they’ve also had the upper hand as of late, winning 9 of the last 15 matchups.

Injury Concerns

For Washington, listed as questionable for Sunday’s game are LB Ryan Kerrigan (chest), RB Chris Thompson (ribs), LB Preston Smith (ankle), CB Quinton Dunbar (ankle), WR Jamison Crowder (ankle), CB Fabian Moreau (ankle), S Troy Apke (hamstring).

For the Giants, listed as questionable for Sunday are WR Russell Shepard (neck), CB Eli Apple (ankle), G Patrick Omameh (undisclosed), WR Jawill Davis (undisclosed).

When the Redskins Have the Ball

Adrian Peterson was the guy last week against Dallas, and because you never really know which Alex Smith you’re going to get until that very moment, Peterson might be shouldering the load this week as well. Moreover, against the Giants 20th-ranked run defense that looks to be the way to go. However, then, the Giants 14th-ranked pass defense didn’t do much in the way of bottling up Matt Ryan either. He finished with 379 yards and one touchdown on 31-of-39 passing.

When the Giants Have the Ball

The Giants have maybe two of the NFL’s top five offensive weapons in Barkley and Beckham, so conventional wisdom says they’re bound to have an offensive explosion that results in a win sometime soon. It might not be against the Skins though as their defense is solid, ranking 5th in the NFL in total defense, 13th in passing defense, 3rd in rushing defense and 7th in scoring defense.

Betting Trends

WASH

• Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last six games
• Washington is 4-2 SU in its last six games
• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington’s last ten games
• Washington is 1-4 ATS in its previous five games on the road
• Washington is 1-5 SU in its last six games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 15 of Washington’s last 22 games on the road
• Washington is 3-7 ATS in its last ten games when playing NY Giants
• Washington is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games when playing NY Giants
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington’s last five games when playing NY Giants
• Washington is 1-4 ATS in its previous five games when playing on the road against NY Giants
• Washington is 1-5 SU in its last six games when playing on the road against NY Giants
• The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Washington’s last 15 games when playing on the road against NY Giants

NYG

• NY Giants is 1-6 SU in its last seven games
• The total has gone UNDER in 10 of NY Giants’s last 14 games
• NY Giants is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home
• NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last six games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 11 of NY Giants’s last 15 games at home
• NY Giants is 7-3 ATS in its last ten games when playing Washington
• NY Giants is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games when playing Washington
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants’s last five games when playing Washington
• NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its previous five games when playing at home against Washington
• NY Giants is 5-1 SU in its last six games when playing at home against Washington
• The total has gone UNDER in 12 of NY Giants’s last 15 games when playing at home against Washington

Weather Report

Temperatures of 47 degrees under cloudy skies are expected for this one with a 35% chance of rain and ten mph NW winds.

Rick Wise’s Pick Against the Point Spread

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