Free Pick: Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots | Betting Preview

Indianapolis Colts (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (2-7 SU, 2-7 ATS)

Week 10 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 9:30 PM EST

Where: Frankfurt Stadium, Frankfurt, Germany

TV: NFL Network

Betting Odds

Point Spread: IND -2/NE +2 (Bovada)

Money Line: IND -135, NE +115

Over/Under Total: 43.5

The Indianapolis Colts take on the New England Patriots in an AFC battle on Sunday in Frankfurt, Germany. The Colts are entering this game with some momentum, having beaten the Panthers last Sunday, 27-13, to improve to 4-5, ending a three-game losing streak. The Patriots, however, find themselves at 2-7 and are coming to Germany following a 20-17 loss to the Commanders at home on Sunday. Can they bounce back against Indy, or is this a chance for the Colts to reach .500 this week?

Are People Too Hard on the Patriots?

There is always a tendency to be overly critical when a highly successful team faces a downturn, but the Patriots’ glory days seem to be behind them. However, are they truly struggling at 2-7 after a recent loss at home to the Commanders? Perhaps not. In their last three games, they managed a win against Buffalo, a loss to divisional rival Miami, and a close game against Washington. This doesn’t paint such a bleak picture. Their slow start included losses to the Eagles and the Dolphins. There was also a rough two-week stretch where they lost to the Cowboys and Saints by a combined score of 72-3.

While there have been rough moments, it might be premature to write them off entirely, especially against a team like the Colts, in Germany of all places. Mac Jones may face challenges, as seen last week against a vulnerable Washington defense that just lost some key players. The Patriots have also lost some receiving talent, with Kendrick Bourne out of action. While the Colts’ defense has its vulnerabilities, with Mac Jones targeting players like Demario Douglas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Hunter Henry, there are no standout stars in this group. The one potential bright spot for the Patriots’ offense is Rhamondre Stevenson, who had a good game last week and could pose a threat to the Indy defense this week.

Possible Angles for the Pats This Sunday

Despite the struggles the Patriots’ defense has faced this season, they can still deliver big plays from time to time. They can focus on key players and limit their impact. However, the Colts’ offense, led by a rejuvenated Jonathan Taylor, could present challenges for New England backers this weekend. While Gardner Minshew can perform well, he has also had games with multiple turnovers, which could be a concern. When he has a bad game, it can get really ugly.

There might be some promise on the offensive side for the Patriots this week. The Colts performed well against a struggling Carolina offense last Sunday, but before that, they gave up 114 points in their previous three games. Some of those points came from opponents capitalizing on mistakes by the Indy offense. This suggests that even the struggling New England offense might have an opportunity to perform better than expected.

Edges for the Colts

Being in Frankfurt may not be ideal, but it’s an opportunity for the Colts to reach 5-5 against the Patriots. Unlike the Patriots, who have struggled this season, the Colts have consistent contributors on both the ground and in the air. Gardner Minshew has the ability to put up big numbers. The Colts’ offense has vitality, and even their backup QB is more prolific than New England’s starter. When comparing the receiving options, it’s uncertain if any of the Patriots’ targets would even make the rotation for the Colts.

Take the Favorite

While there are arguments in favor of the Patriots, there are also compelling counterpoints. The Colts’ defense can be exploited, but the Patriots have struggled to capitalize on opportunities against weaker defenses. Similarly, the Colts’ offense can be inconsistent, but the Patriots’ defense hasn’t shown significant improvement. Despite the uncertainties surrounding this game, I’m leaning towards the Colts.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Indianapolis Colts minus 2 points.

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