Free NFL Week 5 Picks: Packers vs. Rams ATS Prediction

Green Bay Packers (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Rams (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
NFL Football Week 5
Date/Time: Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 4:25PM EDT
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
TV: CBS

The Green Bay Packers come out west to face the Los Angeles Rams in an NFC battle from SoFi Stadium on Sunday. This should be a good game, assuming the Rams hold up their end of the deal. On the one hand, they’ve been scrappy, but Sunday’s 24-18 loss to Chicago has them at 1-3, with a tough-looking Green Bay team coming into town. Still, underselling the Rams, their coaching, and the good pieces that still remain might not always be the best move. It’s going to take an optimistic view, however, against a Packers team that now has QB Jordan Love back behind center. They still have some kinks to work out, though, as a tough 31-29 loss to undefeated Minnesota last week dropped them to 2-2.

Trying to Make Sense of the Rams

It’s easy to low-rate the Rams. They lost the perceived totality of what made them a dangerous dark horse, with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp still out of action. Their defense is certainly nothing top-end, giving up an average of over 30 points a game. And still, they’re dangerous, between the veteran handiwork of Matthew Stafford, the consistent production of RB Kyren Williams, and the collective work of an underrated cabaret of receivers. And after standing up well to the Lions and the 49ers, it’d be premature to relegate them to the scrap pile.

It’s true that the Rams defense on paper doesn’t stand up to a full-power Green Bay aerial attack. Love is coming off a 389-yard/four-touchdown performance on Sunday against a Minnesota “D” that had been playing well. He has a lot of places to spread it around, though losing Christian Watson is a setback. They still have a wealth of good targets, with Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs, and even RB Joshua Jacobs in the right spots. But with three of their first four on the road, the Rams are now home with that defense that can cover a wide range. But we’ve seen some variance in the effectiveness of the Green Bay defense from week to week, as well. Stripped of some of their top weapons or not, the Rams might not be utterly hopeless should this develop into a bit of a footrace.

Main Challenges for the Rams

Before getting into the challenges the Rams face this week, there might be a few challenges in simply attempting to assess the Rams. They’re certainly bound to certain hardcore football realities that can’t be denied, but an on-paper appraisal sometimes fails to capture their true essence. When they show that they can surpass what they appear to be on both sides of the ball, it’s worth factoring that into the breakdown. The main reason is that because, on paper, they don’t hold up that well in this spot. You have Jordan Love coming off a near-400-yard day against the Vikings. Their sheer variety figures to push a limited LA defense to its limits. If this game opens up, who do the Rams turn to other than Kyren Williams in what might be an undesirable spot for him if they start falling behind? And while he’s been quiet to start the season, who’s to say Joshua Jacobs can’t do some of the same damage we saw Bears running back D’Andre Swift do to this Rams’ defense last week?

The Rams get all the credit for keeping things somewhat together in the hailstorm of all these issues, namely Kupp and Nacua. Still, a gutty opening to the season where they sent an off-key Lions’ team to OT was sort of undone by getting demolished by the Cardinals, 41-10, the next week. The Niners team they beat the next week was up against it with injuries, but it still shows their quality. And losing to the Bears by six is not a good result. Not to overrate a .500 Packers team, but doesn’t it seem like you’re going to need a near-ceiling performance on both sides of the ball this week from the Rams to be in this with a shot to win at the end? That’s definitely one way of looking at it.

Some Green Bay Red Flags

It’s unclear whether the Packers’ defense is a bankable commodity on the road against a coached-up Rams offense that can still be dangerous, get the jump on you, and leave you discombobulated. You’ve seen spots like this before, games that look like slam-dunks, and you look up in the first quarter, and it’s 14-0 the other way. That wouldn’t even be surprising in this spot. Again, Love was big last week, but his aerial prowess masked three picks, which proved to be costly in the two-point divisional loss to Minnesota. A defense that is far from foolproof along with mistakes on the other side make it hard to cover numbers on the road against scrappy and well-coached teams with weapons like Kyren Williams. With the Rams sometimes exceeding in sum what they appear to be in parts, along with Green Bay’s imperfections, this just rings of a spot that is going to be more difficult for the Packers than what it would seem.

Take the Points on the Home Dog

In this one, I’m going to go with instinct over rational breakdowns. In the sense of a critical analysis, the safe move seems to be Green Bay giving the short number. Call it a spidey sense, smelling a rat, too good to be true, but I sense a trap of sorts. It’s not that a Green Bay romp would register as much of a surprise, and I suspect there will be some offense in this spot. I just see the Rams getting off to a good start, as their defense keeps things from getting too carried away. I like the Rams to cover the spread at home this week in what should be a pretty good game.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Los Angeles Rams plus 3 points.