Free NFL Picks: Packers vs. 49ers Divisional Round Bet

The Green Bay Packers take on the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Divisional Playoffs on Saturday at Levi’s Stadium. The Niners had last week off, the benefit of being the top-seed in the NFC in the postseason. Their last game was a 21-20 loss to the Rams in a week 18 game where starters were rested. They now host a red-hot Packers team that saw their good form continue in the playoffs with a wildly-unexpected 48-32 smashing of the Cowboys on the road in the Wild Card round on Sunday. Can the Packers continue their postseason roll or will a rested home-Niners squad be a big reality sandwich for the Packers on Saturday? Let’s break it down!

Tougher Than It Looks for San Francisco?

While they are the top seed in the NFC, you wonder if there’s another way of looking at the Niners. They lost two of their last three to close the season and when combined with their bizarre midseason three-game losing streak, you start to look at them as a good team, but one with a strange low-end form we’ve seen surface a handful of times this season. On week 18, they had the top seed locked up so losing by one to a Rams team with something to play for shouldn’t reflect badly. But we now arrive at a point in the season where we haven’t seen the Niners in full-flight for a while. They rested everyone in week 18, and easily bested a bottomed-out Commanders team in Week 17 while losing to the Ravens in week 16. With last week off, while the Packers are squarely hitting their peak, are the Niners primed to hit the ground running this week? Not that you’re expecting them to be flat, but maybe there’s something to be said when one team is hitting its stride in a series of mettle-testing games, while the opponent is in cruise mode.

Putting that aside for a moment, you’re still looking at a 49ers team that spent the whole season looking the part of a real contender. There were some trying moments, but in the end, they did enough to be considered one of the more-complete teams in the league. Their defense is tough and should provide a lot of resistance this week while giving Jordan Love some extra things to consider. And whereas Green Bay caught an off-version of Dak Prescott last week, it’s less likely that the SF offense, with Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle will put forth a big dud on Saturday.

Giving Green Bay Their Rightful Respect

After a 3-6 start, the Packers are really one of the hottest teams in the league. And they’ve been doing it on the road, which should concern potential 49ers’ backers this week. Needing wins to make the postseason, they beat the Lions, Panthers, and Vikings on the road, before besting a Dallas team that had been unbeatable at home to land in this spot. Whereas earlier in the season, we were hearing rumblings that Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love wasn’t going to be the answer for the Packers, he really grew mentally and improved over the course of the season, leading up to what was a terrific performance on Sunday.

It’s easy to be late to the party in cases like this where a team somewhat quietly ascends as the Packers have done in the last few months. But as of now, we see an offense led by a growing force at quarterback, working with a really good back in Aaron Jones when he’s healthy, which he now is. Most promising, though, is a receiver crew that suddenly flexes a variety of great options, with Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Jayden Reed, Bo Melton, Christian Watson, along with tight ends Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave. Any of these guys can step up on a given day and produce, making it really hard on opposing defenses with there now being such a multitude of viable weaponry on this Packers’ offense.

We also see a Green Bay defense stepping up to the occasion. They allowed 19 combined points in their last two games to help get the Packers into the playoffs. And on Sunday, we saw how critical a Darnell Savage pick-six was in setting the tone for what was about to come. But while they’ve become better, with the offense helping, also becoming more disruptive and game-changing, we need to be realistic. And that means acknowledging that we’ve seen more than enough hiccups from this group to warrant concern against a revved-up home postseason Niners’ offense. And if the same Green Bay “D” that gave up 34 to the Bucs in week 15, 30 to Carolina in week 16, and 32 last week albeit while never threatening to give up their lead, they could be in trouble.

Take the Points

It’s sometimes helpful to be cautious when dealing with teams like Green Bay, where you initially underrate them and then run the risk of backlashing too far in the other direction when things go a different way. Their win over Dallas was impressive, but this is a different proposition altogether with a more-bankable Niners’ squad. Nevertheless, with the vulnerabilities the Niners have shown over the course of the season, along with the Packers seeming to really be hitting their groove, I think a marginally competitive game could ensue. This could be a time where you see the Packers just hit a big old wall, while being able to walk off knowing they overachieved and the future is bright. I just suspect they put up a good fight Saturday and cover the spread. I’ll take Green Bay.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Green Bay Packers plus 10 points.