Free NFL Picks: Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos

Las Vegas Raiders (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS)

Week 11 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 4:05PM EST

Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado

TV: Fox

Point Spread: LV +2.5/DEN -2.5 (Everygame – They’ll give you a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 when you enter bonus code PREDICTEM on their special offers page directly after depositing!)

Over/Under Total: 41.5

The Las Vegas Raiders come into Mile High for a week 11 AFC West showdown with the Denver Broncos. Neither team is really having a good time of it this season. The Raiders, sitting at a depressing 2-7, have really hit a wall. In a season that offered promise, it has fallen completely flat, and a 25-20 home loss to the Colts last week really seemed to register in a bad way, as this recent losing stretch has taken a lot out of this team emotionally. Fortunately for them, they face a team experiencing a lot of the same things, namely a flop of a season that was supposed to go well. On Sunday, a 17-10 loss to the Titans again showed a Russell Wilson-led offense in a state of a massive struggle. Which team can respond well enough to get the “W” on Sunday in Denver? Let’s break it down!

A Brief Look Back…

Going back six weeks to review the first divisional faceoff between these two teams has its drawbacks. Things have changed since the Raiders beat the Broncos 32-23 in Vegas, namely the respective morale of both teams since that more-hopeful time. It was a time of the season when the Raiders were starting to get things cooking on offense, with big games from Joshua Jacobs and Davante Adams buoying the Raiders’ effort on that day. It wasn’t a bad day for Russell Wilson, considering his results in most of the other games he has played this season, throwing a pair of TD throws and running one in himself. Things have regressed for both teams since this game.

Which Team is More Broken?

Truly, both teams have decent excuses, with the injury bug having descended on both of these squads in a major way. Then again, when things were more-ideal, neither of these teams was really doing that well anyway, so maybe it’s an empty excuse. For Denver, however, being without Javonte Williams and now Jerry Jeudy was not the plan. When you combine how flat Russell Wilson has fallen in this offense and start taking away key pieces, it’s just not going to work out. Along with some losses along the O-line, the trading of Bradley Chubb, and some awful in-game decision-making by Nathaniel Hackett, it’s been too much to overcome. With no one really stepping up, it’s a sad state of affairs.

It’s just not any better for the Raiders, and we’re seeing guys melting down after games now. A team that forged a team bond last season to get to the postseason amidst a hail of adversity has seen a fraction of that hardship fold them this season. And sure, the injuries are a consideration, with their aerial corps in tatters most of the season, narrowing the scope of success to Davante Adams, with Derek Carr not afforded many targets he can exploit. After a surge, we’ve seen less from Joshua Jacobs lately. We also see the Raiders blowing big leads, with late-game action seldom breaking their way. Last week saw the Raiders blow yet another fourth-quarter lead.

It could be splitting hairs to determine which team is more-poised to provide a spark this week. Offensively, you’d have to say the Raiders have more upside. They’re more intact and have shown far more sheer point-scoring ability this season than a Denver team that almost always fails to provide a surge on that side of the ball. Then again, Denver has retained some bite on their defense, with a secondary that can still put a major crimp into opposing passing attacks. With Carr’s route to success aerially now down mostly to just Adams, this is a spot where the Denver secondary can again shine. With two teams where not a lot is going right, maybe that’s the most compelling part of this matchup.

More Picks: Get Jay’s betting analysis plus free pick for the Eagles at Colts Week 11 game

Routes To Success for Las Vegas

As with most 2-7 teams, a lot might come down to the opponent. The result of this game might boil down to how well the Raiders’ defense performs this week. They are away from home at a time of the year when playing in Denver can become a little more difficult. But for however poorly their defense has performed, this isn’t such a bad spot for them. In the five games since the Broncos put up 23 points against the Raiders, they have scored a combined 65 points. Now take away Jeudy, who scored a TD in the first game, and the prognosis gets even worse. And sure, the Raiders’ defense has been bad, but they also aren’t generally run over in any kind of way. They’re just so bad lately and have been responsible for so many losses that it’s hard not to feel bad about them. But they’re not the porous train wreck that a Denver offense would seem to need at this point to thrive. The Broncos’ offense is basically stuck in the mud right now.

Lay the Number

Either side is a bit of a crapshoot, with underachievement having characterized the season of both teams. It’s just that the Denver defense seems to be the most-bankable part of this matchup. I sense some key players on the Las Vegas sideline are starting to internalize this season as being a real downer. And in what might be a close game, one would seem to rather want a home Denver defense deciding the direction of the game rather than a wayward Derek Carr-led offense and a completely undependable Raiders’ defense. I’ll take a whirl on the Broncos this week.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Denver Broncos minus 2.5 points.