Football Betting Advice: It’s a Marathon, Not a Sprint
By (Twitter) @misterquinnbets
Being a profitable sports bettor is like anything else in life…it takes hard work, preparation, discipline and a little luck. It also takes patience. The football betting season is a grueling odyssey filled with heroic covers, bad beats, long nights and early mornings. Nevertheless, there are ways to successfully navigate this journey to your advantage. Below we’ll discuss four key elements to abide by in order to avoid the typical pitfalls that most gamblers succumb. Nothing in life is guaranteed, but by following these guidelines you’ll have a better chance than most to add to your bankroll by the time confetti is falling on the newly crowned Super Bowl champs.
The most important piece of this puzzle is money management. Being smart and disciplined is key. Chasing losses and bailing out with a huge wager on a Sunday or Monday night game that you don’t particularly like is not part of being a profitable sports bettor. Find a standard bet size that works for your bankroll. This will help you gauge the strength of selections. There is nothing worse than blowing your whole bankroll by Week 4 of the NFL season and then trying to save up to wager again by the college bowl season or the NFL playoffs. With all that said, when you find a game that brings extreme value to the table, bury it. Take advantage of those opportunities when you believe you’ve found a large edge.
Another cog of the process is to develop realistic expectations. When factoring in the juice, you need to win 52.38% of the time. A winning percentage of 55% is not only reasonable, but very profitable! To win at a rate of 70% or 80% of the time over the long haul is just not realistic and that is why discipline and money management are very important. Additionally, it is critical to mention that variance plays a large role in sports betting. Variance, in a simple sense, is the inevitability that there will be great short-term runs and really bad short-term runs. As the sample size increases, variance decreases. Similar to if you bought an index mutual fund versus buying three individual stocks. The greater the variance, the greater the swings in profit and loss. Remember, the great runs and the bad runs will usually net each other off. It is the performance in between that matters most.
Another slice of the pie we’ll discuss is emotions. It is critical to any sports bettor to check their emotions at all times. Although the excitement of a great cover is part of the draw, at the end of the day, your objective needs to be making money. It’s only fun when you’re winning! It’s easy to get wrapped up in the daily roller coaster ride that is the betting season; however, it is imperative that you learn how to take the good with the bad. You need to expect to have bad beats. The important part is how do you react to those. The wrong way, as we discussed earlier, is to load up or bail out on the next game, because you are upset over a bad individual loss or a short-term losing streak. Keep your head focused on the big picture. It’s not called “the grind” for nothing. No doubt you should enjoy the tough wins, but never let the highs get too high or the lows get too low.
Pacing yourself is vital to long term success in the sports investing world. This is particularly difficult when betting college football. Not only are there a ton of games each week, but there are multiple segments on a college football Saturday, meaning, there are Noon eastern kickoffs, 3:30 kickoffs, 7pm, 8pm and the late night WAC or PAC-12 kickoffs. The point here is that it is easy to get caught up in a handful of games during the Noon segment and potentially blow your bankroll before you even have a chance to settle in with your lunch. It’s about game planning. Prior to the first kickoff of the day, you should have a pretty firm idea of who’s on your bet sheet for the day; in fact, you might have already bet some games earlier in the week to lock in a favorable line. Don’t bet segments, look at the card as a whole and find value, regardless of what time the game begins. It’s nice to arrange your bet sheet so that you’re home with a drink enjoying the game, but you won’t enjoy it long if it was a pressed wager that ultimately loses. Some weeks you might not have a wager until later in the day. Other weeks, all your action might be early. It doesn’t matter. Bet value when you can. In the NFL, this issue doesn’t play as large as a role, but it is still sometimes difficult to steer your way through the day. It’s okay if you don’t have any wagers for the late games on Sunday afternoon. Winning is winning, no matter when it occurs. Remember, you can’t lose a bet you don’t make. Volume may help decrease variance, but it also makes it hard to maintain high winning percentages and profitable wagering.
It’s a daily grind; the objective is to build your bankroll in stages. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.
Good luck and keep cashing!