Falcons vs. Saints Week 10 NFL Picks and Predictions: Can Atlanta Keep Rolling?

Atlanta Falcons (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS)
NFL Football Week 10
Date/Time: Sunday, November 10th, 2024, 1:00PM (EST)
Where: Caesars Superdome New Orleans, LA.
TV: FOX

Betting Odds

Point Spread: ATL -3.5/NO +3.5
Moneyline: ATL -170/NO +145
Total: 46.5

Last week, the Atlanta Falcons knocked off the Dallas Cowboys in convincing fashion to move to 6-3 SU and pulled ahead in the NFC South by a full two games over the 2nd place Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Since starting 1-2, the Falcons have won 5 of their last six games and appear to be clicking on both sides of the football. As things currently stand, the Falcons are a perfect 4-0 against divisional opponents and will have the opportunity to extend that streak against a struggling New Orleans Saints team on Sunday.

While the Falcons have been trending in a positive direction, the wheels have seemingly fallen off the Saints bandwagon. Following an impressive start to the season, which included blowout victories over the Panthers and Cowboys, the Saints have now lost seven straight games following last week’s disappointing 23-22 loss against the Panthers. The loss to the Panthers was the final straw for Head Coach Dennis Allen, who was fired following the defeat. As a result, Assistant Head Coach Darren Rizzi will be the interim head coach moving forward as the Saints try to turn things around, starting with this Sunday’s showdown against Atlanta.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Analysis

With the Falcons current momentum, it is rather surprising that they are listed as just 3.5 point favorites in their road trip to New Orleans. Perhaps the reason for that betting line surrounds the fact that New Orleans is still a very talented football team despite the lack of execution in recent weeks. However, the team will likely be without WR Chris Olave, who suffered another nasty concussion during last week’s loss to Carolina. Additionally, the Saints traded CB Marshon Lattimore to Washington on Tuesday, which will definitely create a big impact on the Saints’ pass defense.

With QB Kirk Cousins playing at a high level and the continued production from WR Drake London and the Atlanta receiving corps, I believe the Saints defense is going to be on the losing side of the match-up battle unless turnovers arise. Head Coach Raheem Morris has created a healthy offensive balance between the run and pass, which is the reason the Falcons are averaging just less than 30 points over the last six games. However, I would argue that the Falcons are at their best when they are running the football effectively, and I believe that will be key to this match-up. Fortunately for Atlanta, RB Bijan Robinson draws an ideal match-up against a Saints defense that is giving up 136 yards per game on the ground as a bottom eight run-defense in the NFL.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Trends

• Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in the last five games.
• Atlanta has hit the “over” in 4 of the last six games.
• Atlanta is 5-1 SU in the last six games.
• Atlanta has hit the “over” in 4 of the last five games on the road.
• New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in the last five games.
• New Orleans is 0-7 SU in the last seven games.
• New Orleans has hit the “over” in 5 of the last seven games.
• New Orleans is 10-4 SU in the last 14 games against Atlanta.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Prediction

It is not uncommon for a team to rally around a new interim coach following the firing of a head coach. We have seen it several times over the last few seasons, and I believe that is one of the reasons this betting line is much closer than many expected. However, simply based on the match-ups, I can’t get behind the idea that the Saints will turn things around overnight. The Saints are on the wrong side of the match-ups and still have a lot of issues on the offensive side of the football. Therefore, I’m taking the Falcons with confidence to continue their strong play!

Jay’s Pick: Take Atlanta -3.5