Falcons vs. Lions Week 3 Prediction – Fireworks in Atlanta
Atlanta Falcons (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Week 3 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, September 24, 2023 at 1PM EDT
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
TV: Fox
Point Spread: ATL +3/DET -3 (Did you know Wagerweb offers 20 point football teasers?)
Money Line: Atlanta +145, Detroit -170
Over/Under Total: 46
The Atlanta Falcons come to Ford Field on Sunday to battle the Detroit Lions in a big week 3 NFC showdown in the Motor City. Detroit came down to earth a bit on Sunday, falling to the Seahawks in an overtime shootout, 37-31, to fall to 1-1. Back at home this week, they host the 2-0 Falcons. After two home wins against Carolina and Green Bay to start the season, the Falcons now take to the road in a dangerous spot where they’re hoping their run game and defense can win out over Detroit’s offensive explosiveness. Will we see Detroit rebound at home after the tough loss last week, or will Atlanta serve notice that they’re a team on the rise? Let’s break it down!
Atlanta: Under the Radar
Teams like the Falcons are easy to neglect. We see a team that hasn’t surpassed seven wins since 2017. And it’s not like they added a lot of high-prized artillery, other than getting what might end up being a difference-making back in the first round with Bijan Robinson, who is already showing his fangs as an impactful back who can also catch passes out of the backfield. Maybe we should withhold judgment. Last season, we saw a desultory offense with a rookie in Desmond Ridder, who failed to do much. But with Robinson maybe adding a new edge to this offense, who’s to say we don’t start seeing better from Ridder, as he tries to better connect with an aerial cast that has talent like Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Mack Hollins? With Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in the backfield, it’s not like they don’t have weapons. Let’s also face up to the fact for all of Detroit’s growth the last year or so, their defense is at least moderately less-dependable than their offense.
Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith’s handiwork on defense appears to finally be delivering. We see Jessie Bates, III. making an impact, already with two picks. The pass rush is getting cranked up, and it was promising to see them play in tandem with the offense, helping stage the fourth-quarter comeback against the Packers on Sunday, as the “D” smothered the Packers late, with Ridder leading three scoring drives. So, seeing that late-game clutch play was also promising, and where the Falcons end up this season is anyone’s guess, but let’s just say the 2-0 start is not a mirage or a result of happenstance. Atlanta is coming along nicely.
Edges for Detroit this Week
Some of the more-obvious advantages the Lions have are in the area of offensive effervescence. They don’t need 100 stars to line up to get the aerial offense cranked up, with Goff working with a nice variety of pass-catchers, led by guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown. The backfield takes a hit with David Montgomery iffy after leaving last game with a thigh injury, but Atlanta isn’t the only team with a high-end rookie back, as Jahmyr Gibbs made his presence felt with some extra work on Sunday. With the options at Jared Goff’s disposal, it’s just a far more dependable offensive recipe than what their opponent brings to the table. And if the Atlanta “D” just sort of melts on the road against this high-octane offense, it’s doubtful they are suited to fare well in a shootout scenario.
Less obvious, but potentially even more damaging for the Falcons are the Lions’ edges in the trenches. This is an area where Atlanta has a lot of strength, and they depend on it. But for as good as the ATL offensive line is, Detroit’s might be better. And it will definitely be tougher on the iffy Atlanta defensive front than the opposite. Not that Detroit won’t struggle with the great run-blocking the Falcons line provides, but there are difference-makers on the Detroit “D” in the front-seven that Atlanta can’t boast. Generally, for Atlanta to thrive, the battle in the trenches needs to be clearly in their favor and this week might be one of those rare times where it’s just not.
Potential Issues for the Falcons
You have to wonder if Atlanta can deliver enough on defense to curtail a Detroit unit that is typically better at home and playing with a little extra urgency to not drop two in a row at Ford Field. While there are some favorable matchups they can wield on a Detroit defense with that good offensive line and the power of their running-game, it’s a narrower path. To win this game or even to dip under that spread, they need both sides of the ball to click in this spot. Subduing this DET offense isn’t going to be easy, and their offense is going to need to be ready for both a resourceful-type game or a possible shootout, and it is the latter scenario where their prospects seem to dwindle.
Lay the Points
This seems like a spot where the Detroit “D” can rebound from an uneven showing against Seattle, who is a far more aerially-inclined team than what they face this week. With Atlanta having fewer routes to offensive success, we could see the Detroit defense in a better light this week, though losing CJ Gardner-Johnson doesn’t help. Perhaps the matchups of the first two weeks painted the Falcons in a more-flattering light, but with a pretty standard home-team allowance of three points, I see this as a dangerous spot for the Lions, but nevertheless one they should be able to overcome. I’ll take the Detroit.
Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Detroit Lions minus 3 points. Bet your Week 3 NFL picks for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus up to $300 when you use bonus promo code PREDICTEM at BetUS Sportsbook!
