Falcons vs. Eagles MNF Prediction: Betting Picks & Analysis

Game Information

MNF Betting Preview: Atlanta Falcons (0-1) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

Date: September 16, 2024

Time: 8:15 PM ET

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA

Weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 5 mph

Betting Odds

Team Analysis

Atlanta Falcons (0-1)

The Falcons’ season opener against the Steelers was a wake-up call, resulting in a disappointing 18-10 loss. Kirk Cousins, their prized offseason acquisition, struggled to find his footing in the new offense. Completing just 16 of 26 passes (61.5%) for a paltry 155 yards and two interceptions, Cousins looked out of sync with his receivers and was under constant pressure from the Steelers’ defense.

Perhaps more concerning was the Falcons’ ground game, typically a strength of the team. They managed a mere 89 yards on 22 carries, averaging just 4.05 yards per attempt. This is a significant drop-off from their 2023 season average of 4.9 yards per carry. The offense’s inability to establish the run put additional pressure on Cousins and the passing game, leading to a meager 10-point output.

Defensively, the Falcons showed some promise, holding the Steelers to 18 points and 270 total yards. However, they’ll face a much stiffer test against the Eagles’ high-powered offense in Week 2.

Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

The Eagles kicked off their 2024 campaign with a nail-biting 34-29 victory over the Packers. While the win column looks good, there are some glaring concerns, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Philadelphia’s run defense was alarmingly porous, allowing the Packers to gash them for 163 rushing yards at an eye-popping 7.8 yards per carry. This vulnerability could be a major factor against a Falcons team desperate to establish their running game.

Offensively, the Eagles looked sharp, amassing 410 total yards (144 rushing, 266 passing). AJ Brown was the standout performer, hauling in 5 catches for 119 yards. However, his status for the Falcons game is questionable due to a hamstring injury, which could significantly impact the Eagles’ passing attack if he’s unable to play.

Jalen Hurts showed why he’s considered one of the league’s elite dual-threat quarterbacks, contributing both through the air and on the ground. His ability to extend plays and make something out of nothing will be crucial against a Falcons defense that showed improvement in Week 1.

Key Statistics

Trends to Watch

• Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
• Atlanta is 2-13 SU in their last 15 road games
• Philadelphia is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games
• Philadelphia is 15-8 SU in their last 23 games
• The UNDER is 16-8 in Atlanta’s last 24 games
• The OVER is 5-0 in Philadelphia’s last 5 home games
• Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Atlanta
• The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams

Key Matchups

The focal point of this game will be the battle between Atlanta’s struggling offense and Philadelphia’s porous run defense. If the Falcons can establish their ground game against the Eagles’ weak run defense (7.8 YPC allowed in Week 1), they could control the tempo and keep the game close. Look for Atlanta to lean heavily on their running backs early to set up play-action passes for Cousins.

On the flip side, Philadelphia’s offense vs. Atlanta’s defense presents an intriguing matchup. The Eagles’ balanced attack (144 rushing yards, 266 passing yards in Week 1) will test a Falcons defense that looked improved but hasn’t faced an offense of this caliber yet. If AJ Brown is healthy, his matchup against the Falcons’ secondary could be a game-changer.

In the trenches, watch for the Eagles’ offensive line, one of the best in the league, against a Falcons front seven that managed to generate consistent pressure against the Steelers. If Philadelphia can provide Hurts with time in the pocket, it could be a long day for the Falcons’ secondary.

The Bottom Line

While the Eagles are favored at home, their defensive struggles in Week 1 are cause for concern. The 6-point spread seems generous given Philadelphia’s recent ATS struggles (1-7 in their last 8) and Atlanta’s potential for offensive improvement. The Falcons’ offense was anemic in their opener, but they have the talent to bounce back, especially if they can exploit the Eagles’ weak run defense.

The total of 46.5 points is intriguing. While the UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams, the OVER is 5-0 in Philadelphia’s last 5 home games. Given the Eagles’ offensive firepower and defensive vulnerabilities, coupled with Atlanta’s potential for offensive improvement, the OVER looks appealing.

Prediction: Eagles 28, Falcons 24

Best Bets

1. Falcons +6 (-110)
2. Over 46.5 points (-110)
3. AJ Brown Over receiving yards (Update: He’s OUT)
4. Falcons 1st Half +3.5 (-110)

The Falcons’ potential to exploit the Eagles’ run defense makes them an attractive option to cover the spread. The total has value as well, considering both teams’ offensive potential and defensive vulnerabilities. If AJ Brown plays, his receiving prop could be enticing given the Falcons’ pass defense and his Week 1 performance. Additionally, considering Atlanta’s tendency to start games strong, a first-half bet could provide value.

Remember to check injury reports, especially regarding AJ Brown’s status, before placing any bets.

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