Falcons vs. Cardinals Prediction ATS for Week 10

Atlanta Falcons (4-5 SU, 2-7 ATS) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-8 SU, 4-4-1 ATS)

Week 10 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 4:05PM EST

Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona

TV: CBS

Betting Odds

Point Spread: ATL -1.5/ARI +1.5 (Bovada)

Money Line:ATL -125, ARI +105

Over/Under Total: 42.5

The Atlanta Falcons come to State Farm Stadium on Sunday to take on the Arizona Cardinals in a week ten NFC showdown in the desert. The Cardinals return home after an ugly 27-0 loss on the road to the Browns last week, punctuating a 6-game slide that has derailed this team. The Falcons didn’t have a great time of it on Sunday either, losing 31-28 to the Vikings for their second straight loss, dropping them to 4-5 after a scrappy start to the season. Who can get it done and notch the cover in Glendale on Sunday?

Help on the Way

This is being targeted as the week for Arizona QB Kyler Murray’s return. Arizona has seen their season go flying off a cliff after showing some initial moxie this season. It’s also not hard to see how poor QB play has undermined their effort, leaving some talented players to rot on a vine. First, it was Joshua Dobbs, who showed some feisty play before descending and being shipped out of town. Last week, we saw Clayton Tune, as the offense dipped another notch. Therefore, it can only help to get Murray back behind center.

With Murray having missed so much time, how much of a difference will he make? With the shutout-loss last week, the Cardinals have scored ten or fewer points in three of their last four and could be the worst team in the league right now or pretty close. Murray upgrading the Cardinals to simply bad would be a massive upgrade. They took their time with Murray, and there is no urgency to bring him back in terms of trying to salvage the season because that’s already a lost cause. Therefore, you’d have to think he’s not compromised. There might be some rust, but he should be ready to go.

Good Spot for Atlanta?

Their last five games have seen them go 2-3, all one-score games. The Falcons have been far from exciting but have seen a bit of an offensive surge with Taylor Heinicke starting over a benched Desmond Ridder. They’d like to see Drake London (questionable) back out there. And while they’re seeing some spot good performances from guys like Jonnu Smith, they’ve struggled to get the ground game rolling with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. And yes, this seems like an exploitable spot, but the Arizona defense has been halfway-resilient, not falling into laughingstock status despite a total lack of star-power and an offense hanging them out to dry.

An Atlanta defense that has struggled in its last two games against Tennessee and Minnesota, both teams playing with backup quarterbacks, could be put to the test in this road spot. With James Conner out, it’s not like the Cardinals are running the ball all that well, but Murray adds a little appeal with his legs. Additionally, Marquise Brown, blossoming tight end Trey McBride, and others on this offense are viable weapons the Cardinals can wield on an Atlanta defense that seems to be at a low point in their season. Maybe between Murray and Emari Demarcado, they can get the defense looking at the run, and Murray can complete some easy passes and get the chains moving in this spot.

Motivation

All the losses and an unsightly 1-8 record have to be registering with the Cardinals, with almost half a season to go, knowing they’re out of it. The return of Murray could provide a jolt, but it’s not like he was iron-clad even under ideal conditions, and he is coming off a long inactive period. It’s not a team that has run up the white flag necessarily, but watching them last week did not produce thoughts that a turnaround was imminent. Adding Kyler Murray to a broken situation might not be enough to shift things significantly.

Atlanta hasn’t seen any urgency really register in the last few weeks. They’ve been in close games but were unable to get it done in winnable spots as they saw their record dip from 4-3 to 4-5. But in the NFC South, 4-5 puts you right in the thick of things, with the Saints atop the division at 5-4, along with Atlanta still having a pair of games coming up against New Orleans. To see things slip further away with another loss is a setback the Falcons and coach Arthur Smith know they can’t withstand at this point. Not being able to beat a 1-8 Cardinals team to get back to .500 in week ten would be a tough pill to swallow. Granted, Atlanta isn’t good enough to turn on some switch and see things start magically going their way, but this sure seems like an advantageous spot to do so. Arizona struggles against the run, so maybe we will get a big game from Bijan Robinson finally. And if London is back, that’s just one more weapon for Heinicke to use. While inconsistent. Heinicke is a guy who can put up numbers in the right spot. This may be one of them.

Lay the Number on the Road Favorite

Atlanta is not a team that strikes one as an ideal candidate to lay points on the road. But along with their slightly improved offensive results, is what seems to be a nice matchup. If Murray can avoid any setbacks and make his way to the field on Sunday, it does make this a more treacherous stance. Whatever you can say about Murray or what state he might be in coming off the layoff, he does give a suffering team some X-factor appeal that should give Atlanta backers some consternation this week. Still, I think the Falcons come up with the right answers this week, as they get the win and cover in Glendale. I’ll take the Falcons.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Atlanta Falcons minus 1.5 points.

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