Falcons vs. Buccaneers Picks: RBD’s Key Stats Drive Week 8 Play

Cousins over Mayfield and a Depleted Bucs Offense

Who: The Atlanta Falcons

What: Projected winners, ATS

Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, Florida

When: Sunday, October 27th @10 am, PST

Why: Key stats

Key stat number one:
Two weeks ago, Falcon quarterback Kirk Cousins threw for four TDs against the Bucs’ defense.

If you think that was an anomaly and unlikely to happen again…

Key stat number two:
Last week, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson torched them for FIVE touchdowns.

Key stat number three:
Tampa Bay is missing BOTH of their star wide receivers, Godwin and Evans.

Key stat number four:
Godwin and Evans account for 42% of Tampa Bay’s touchdowns. If the Bucs couldn’t beat the Falcons with their two best weapons on the field, how the hell are they going to beat ’em without them???

And from my own unique handicapping systems for identifying WFs (Wrong Favs):

Key stat number five:
WF1 is 2-7 on home teams, a 77% Fade. WF1 says Tampa Bay should be the Fav this week.

Key stat number six:
WF2 is 7-19 on home teams, a 73% Fade. WF2 says Tampa Bay should be the Fav this week.

Key stat number seven:
When I have a match, when both systems have the same team as the Wrong Fav, the record is 2-6, a 75% Fade. Both WF1 and WF2 say Tampa Bay should be the Fav at home this week.

The two teams are tied for first in the NFC South with identical records of 4-3. But the Falcons are 2-0 on the road; the Bucs are just 2-2 at home; there is a slight edge to Atlanta there.

Defenses are equal as far as PPG. Tampa has a clear edge on offense, BUT that was when they were healthy and had Godwin and Evans running routes.

When they met in Atlanta two weeks ago, Kirk Cousins completed 42 of 58 passes for 509 yards and four TDs.
Atlanta kicker Koo kicked the game-tying field goal with only a single second left on the game clock; then Cousins threw a 45-yard touchdown pass in overtime to seal the win for Atlanta.
A game like that should have been a confidence booster that leads to future victories, but the Falcons were an incompetent mess against the Seahawks last week. I like them in this “get right” spot against Tampa on Sunday.

When to Buy Recommendation

The line opened at TB -2, but because of the injuries on Tampa Bay, it quickly flip-flopped to Atlanta as the Fav at -2′.
And that’s the number I bought it at this morning, thinking it’ll go to -3 by game day.

Recap: 0-1
Record: 5-7.5
Review: Last time in and I had LAC -2′.
The Chargers scored FIVE times and STILL lost. Because all five were field goals.
A great day for Dicker, the kicker.
Not a good day for me in my battle with the books in the NFL.

Season win updates:
I have four NFL season win bets open, all Unders, Cincinnati, Seattle, the New York Giants, and Pittsburgh.

First play, my best one, is Cincinnati Under 10′, +108, posted on July 12th.
This play came to me after I heard some jerk on the radio giving out the old “Guaranteed Lock!” on Cincinnati to go Over. When I got home I did my own research and decided he’s an idiot.
I had no faith that Joe Burroughs was going to come back from his injuries and be any better than he was before he got hurt. And I was correct. The Bengals are sitting at 3-4 with 10 games left. That means they have to win eight of their last ten games for me to not cash a ticket.

Chicken number one, chicken number two, chicken number three, etc, etc.

Know what I was doing there?
Counting my chickens before they’re hatched. No way the Bengals go 8-2 with the teams they have left on their schedule. Cincinnati money is going in my bank.

Next came Seattle, posted on August 6th.
The wager is Under 7′, +126.
I chose this one because they’re my favorite team and I thought I had a good read on them, basing my wager on the fact that Geno Smith was past his prime and due for a bad year.
WAAAAY off on this one. Geno’s having a great year and Seattle is 4-3 at a point in the season where I had them at 2-5.
They only need four wins in the last ten games so barring a total collapse I’m probably donating this wager, giving back the Cincinnati profit.

But that’s okay because . . .

Bet number three was on the New York Giants Under 6′, -145.
This was based on the simple but tried and true concept that Daniel Jones absolutely sucks at QB.
The Giants are currently at 2-5.
They fired their general manager and are talking about benching Jones.
They have to go 5-5 over their last 10 to beat me. In other words, chicken number one, chicken number two, chicken number three, etc etc.

My fourth bet was on Pittsburgh, Under 8′ -135.
I based this on Russell Wilson’s best days being behind him and Fields being no better as a backup.
But credit to Mike Tomlin, he’s done a masterful job and the Steelers are sitting at 5-2. They only need four more wins in their last ten games. They have a REALLY tough schedule ahead though, at Washington, home and away with Baltimore, and Philadelphia and Kansas City, too.
Odds favor the Over, but I’m not dead yet.

Looks like a 2-2 at worst case, a slight chance at 3-1 based on Pittsburgh.
I’ll update it again later in the season.