Falcons vs. Buccaneers: Loot’s Best Bet for TNF

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)

NFL Football Week 5

Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, October 3, 2024 at 8:15 PM EDT

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia

TV: Prime Video

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers come into Mercedes-Benz Stadium for a Thursday Night Football showdown with the Atlanta Falcons. This NFC South divisional game is a high-stakes matchup for an early-season matchup, with the winner able to carry some momentum and get a leg-up with some telling moments in the season impending. Both teams notched impressive wins on Sunday. Atlanta was able to beat the Saints in a back-and-forth battle, 26-24, with a 58-yard field goal by Younghoe Koo at the end to seal it. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, was able to jump all over the Eagles on Sunday in a game that was never in doubt, winning 33-16. After two games at home, they now take to the road in a tough divisional spot. Let’s break it down!

Points to Ponder

Atlanta is home again, strangely starting their season with four of their first five games at home, with this being their third in a row. Tampa just finished a two-game homestand, so it’s not like a familiar divisional road-matchup is going to throw them for a loop. But it’s worth noting that Atlanta has been able to really dig into their home quarters in a way that is seldom afforded teams in the middle of the regular season. With a path coming up down the road where they get four of five on the road, this is a time they need to do damage. After falling to the Chiefs the previous week and having lost their first two of the season at home, the win over a tough Saints team on Sunday really hit the spot to even the Falcons’ mark at 2-2. It wasn’t an offensive bonanza on Sunday that got them over the hump, instead relying on the work of Koo, along with a pick-six, and a New Orleans special teams snafu that got Atlanta their first score of the day. For the purposes of this game on Thursday, they might need to see their offense actually get into the end zone.

Tampa Bay has to be happy with their 3-1 start, as well as their dominant exhibition against the Eagles on Sunday. There were no smoke-and-mirrors to their win, with the offense pounding away and taking a 21-0 lead early in the second quarter. QB Baker Mayfield threw for 347 yards and had three touchdowns in a big game. Mike Evans had a nice game, with useful performances from Cade Otton and Chris Godwin. They ran the ball well in spots with both Bucky Irving and Rachaad White. The defense was big with six sacks and tightened up whenever it appeared the Eagles might get on a little run. They looked great in three of four weeks, opening with nice wins over Washington and Detroit. It all came apart at home in week three against Denver in an ugly 26-7 loss. Sunday shows they can come back strongly, but if the Bucs end up thriving this season, it won’t be a road without some bumps along the way. Their formula to win doesn’t always manifest.

Edges for Atlanta

In addition to this prolonged homestand, the Falcons find themselves dialing it in nicely on a well-rounded defense. They’re strong in all areas, with juice up-front, in the middle, along with a talented secondary. We see Atlanta struggling to dial it in on an offense that lags a bit behind the other side of the ball to begin the season. But their defense might be a big help on Thursday. I get the feeling that in their three wins, the Bucs were perhaps fortunate to either be facing troubled defensive units or ones that were just off on that day. Against a team that was playing well on “D” in the Broncos, they were utterly flummoxed. I doubt we continue to see such stark contrasts with the Buccaneers’ offensive output, but I’m not sure this road-spot sets up ideally for the kind of Tampa offensive tornado we saw on Sunday. One also gets the feeling that with some added reps and distance from his Achilles injury last season, Kirk Cousins can better connect with an offense that has some pieces that can go off when things start to click. But five offensive touchdowns through 4 games isn’t going to cut it anytime soon. They’re fortunate to be 2-2. But in both their wins, they were super-clutch, and that can go a long way.

The Case for Tampa

First of all, the Bucs’ offense doesn’t need X, Y, and Z to happen for them to produce. With the resurgent Baker Mayfield has found his stride, the developing one-two punch of White and Irving in the backfield, along with the established WR tandem of Evans and Godwin, they’re set. It may not be elite, but it’s solid and somewhat bankable. Of equal concern to the Falcons, this week is that any rumblings we’ve heard about this Tampa defense being duck soup haven’t really materialized. Other than the game against Denver, which was one of those typical NFL “nothing made sense” games, they’ve been pretty good. And seeing them get that pass-rush cranked up was really promising that they can be a defense that is pretty stout and has some game-changing ability, as well.

Take the Home Team

I picture a tough divisional game in Atlanta on Thursday, one that could be a grind in spots. I picture the Atlanta defense having a say in this game, as Mayfield and this aerial attack run into a few more issues this week than last. I look for Cousins to maybe connect a little better with WR Drake London and his other targets, while Bijan Robinson starts living up to his billing. And even if that part of the Falcons falls flat, I’d look for their defense to step up in a tough divisional setting on Thursday. I’ll take the Falcons in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Atlanta Falcons minus 2 points.

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