Eagles vs. Commanders Week 16: Jay’s Total Pick for this NFC East Showdown

Philadelphia Eagles (12-2 SU, 9-5 ATS) vs. Washington Commanders (9-5 SU, 8-5-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 16
Date/Time: Sunday, December 22nd, 2024, 1:00PM (EST)
Where: Northwest Stadium Landover, MD
TV: FOX

Betting Odds

Point Spread: PHI -3/WAS +3
Moneyline: PHI -170/WAS +145
Total: 45.5

The Philadelphia Eagles tied a franchise record with their 10th straight victory following last Sunday’s 27-13 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Despite the winning streak, the Eagles dealt with some criticism surrounding the subpar passing performances in recent weeks. In last week’s win against the Steelers, the Eagles’ offense seemingly addressed the criticism, with QB Jalen Hurts throwing for 290 yards with two touchdowns and star WR AJ Brown grabbing eight receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown. This week, the Eagles will look to keep their momentum going and keep the win streak alive with a difficult divisional road test against the Washington Commanders.

At 9-5 SU on the season, the Commanders have been one of the surprise stories in the NFL with breakout rookie QB Jayden Daniels. While the 9-5 record has been impressive, the Commanders are just one score away in their losses from being 13-1. The team has played very well all season and has lost several close games by one score or less. Following back-to-back wins over the Titans and Saints, the Commanders are in a solid position to make the playoffs, but each game over the next 3 weeks will be critical to keep those postseason hopes alive.

Eagles vs. Commanders Betting Analysis

In week 11, the Eagles knocked off the Commanders with a 26-18 victory at Lincoln Financial Field. In that match-up, the Eagles’ defense shined by limiting the Commanders’ rushing attack to just 93 yards on the ground. The Eagles also held QB Jayden Daniels in check, which may not be surprising because Philadelphia has the #1 pass defense in the NFL. The Eagles’ pass defense has been rock solid throughout the year and matches up very well against this Washington offense.

However, I am not convinced that the Eagles’ run defense will necessarily win this week 11 rematch. The Commanders have the 3rd ranked rushing attack in the league behind the legs of RB Brian Robinson and QB Jayden Daniels, who have combined for 1,300 yards and 14 touchdowns. In recent weeks, the Commanders’ ground game has been very solid, and the passing attack has been even better. WR Terry McLaurin has racked up 348 yards and five touchdowns in the three games since that week 11 loss to the Eagles. Needless to say, I think this will be a much better offense that the Eagles have to contend with on Sunday.

With that being said, I’m still not ready to take the Commanders over the Eagles. After all, we cannot forget about the Eagles’ offense which has shown they can move the football by any means necessary. More importantly, NFL leading RB Saquan Barkley will attack a Washington run-defense that has been vulnerable throughout the season. Barkley is the type of player who can put this game on his shoulders, and that may be a reliable path to victory for the Eagles. Even if that does not happen, Hurts and the passing attack have shown they can move the football as well.

Philadelphia vs. Washington Betting Trends

• The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in the last six games.
• The Eagles have hit the “under” in 5 of the last six games.
• The Eagles are 10-0 SU in the last ten games.
• The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in the last five games on the road.
• The Commanders are 1-4 ATS in the last five games.
• The Commanders have hit the “over” in 10 of the last 15 games.
• The Commanders are 5-2 ATS in the last seven games at home.
• The Commanders are 1-6 SU in the last seven games against Philadelphia.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders Betting Prediction

I think this match-up has the perfect ingredients for an unexpected shootout. Both offenses can move the football well and have strong paths to success on the ground which is both defenses’ weakness. As a result, I’m expecting a lot more scoring opportunities than the current total suggests!

Jay’s Pick: Take the over 45.5