Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots Pick – Can the Pats Keep it Close?

Philadelphia Eagles (14-3 SU, 8-9 ATS in 2022) at New England Patriots (8-9, 7-9-1), 9/10/23

When: 4:25 pm ET Sunday, Sept. 10

Where: Gillette Stadium

TV: CBS

NFL Betting odds: Phil -4/NE +4 (STOP betting at -110! Start laying only -105 reduced odds!)

Total: 45.5

The Eagles begin pursuit of a return trip to the Super Bowl. At the same time, the Patriots pursue a return to glory, heading into the season opener for both teams Sunday afternoon in Foxboro.

Philadelphia is the defending NFC champion; can they take it one step further this season;

New England missed the playoffs again last season; can they get back there this season?

And how are we playing this game with our free Eagles/Pats pick?

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 1 NFL betting odds opened the Eagles as five-point road favorites over the Patriots, with an over/under of right around 45.5. Early betting action then shaved Philly down to -4.

Eagles Betting Preview

Philadelphia, as we recall, nearly won the Super Bowl last season. The Eagles started 8-0 last year, winning the “last undefeated team” betting board at a price of +2000. Philly later reached 13-1, lost a couple of games without Hurts, but beat the Giants in Week 18 to clinch the top seed for the NFC playoffs. The Eagles then disposed of the Giants in a divisional-round playoff game and the 49ers, who were basically quarterback-less to win the NFC championship.

Philadelphia then led Kansas City through three-quarters of the Super Bowl before falling 38-35 on a very late Chiefs field goal.

Now, the trick for the Eagles is to take that next step and win the Big One.

Philadelphia ranked 3rd in the League in total offense last year at 389 yards per game and 5th in rushing at 148 YPG. However, only 97 of those rushing YPG came from running backs; QB Jalen Hurts ran for 51 PG. This is a bit concerning; you don’t want your MVP-candidate QB getting beat up.

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles ranked 2nd in total defense last year, holding opponents to just 302 YPG but 17th against the run, allowing 122 YPG.

After going 13-1 with Hurts last season, Philadelphia is playing against a “Season Win Total” of 11.5 – tied for the highest on the board with Cincinnati and Kansas City.

Patriots Betting Preview

New England, meanwhile, played 8-9 last year and missed the playoffs for the second time in three seasons of the post-Brady era. The Patriots started a tough 1-3 last year and later sat at 2-5 but used a 5-1 run, winning a couple of games with their backup quarterback, to crawl into playoff contention. But New England then finished 1-3 and home for the post-season.

Now, is this New England team any better today than it was last December?

The Patriots ranked just 26th in total offense last year at 316 YPG and 24th in rushing at 107 YPG. But they also ranked 8th in total defense at 322 YPG and 6th against the run at 106 YPG.

Then, over the off-season, New England used its first three draft picks on defense. Go figure.

After averaging eight wins over the last three seasons, the Patriots are playing against a wins O/U this season of 7.5.

Eagles-Patriots Recent History

These teams met most famously in the Super Bowl six seasons ago, that 41-33 Philadelphia victory. But that’s one head coach and two starting quarterbacks ago for these two teams. Most recently, four seasons ago, New England won at Philly 17-10.

Tom Brady quarterbacked the Patriots that day against Carson Wentz for the Eagles.

NFL Betting Trends

Philadelphia played just 2-5 ATS last year as a road favorite.

New England played 0-3 ATS last year as a home dog.

Totals Report

The overs played 10-7 in Eagles games last season, which averaged 48 total points.

The unders played 9-8 in Patriots games last season, which averaged 42 points.

Let’s see … 48+42=90 – divided by 2 is 45. And what’s the total on this game?

Free NFL Betting Pick

Philadelphia certainly remains a top Super Bowl contender, but we are concerned a bit about being too reliant on Hurts for offense and that run defense. Also, over half of the Eagles’ wins last season came by one score. Meanwhile, New England could use better production out of its QB spot, but we like RB Rhamondre Stevenson (5.0 yards per carry last season), and the defense might be even better than it was last year. We’re thinking this game will play close, so we’re taking the Patriots plus the points.