Dolphins vs. Ravens Betting Analysis & Free Pick

Miami Dolphins (11-4 SU, 10-5 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (12-3, 10-5), 12/31/23
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 31
Where: M&T Bank Stadium
TV: CBS

Betting Odds

Point spread: Mia +3.5/Balt -3.5
Money line: Mia +155/Balt -185
Total: 47

Fresh off letting the NFL know they’re the best team in the League, the Ravens get another challenge when the Dolphins come to Baltimore for a big AFC showdown on Sunday afternoon.

These two teams occupy the top two spots in the AFC playoff standings, with just two weeks left in the regular season, so this game will probably decide the site of the upcoming AFC championship game.

These teams played a crazy game in Baltimore last year, a Miami victory. How might Sunday’s game play out?

NFL Betting Odds

The Week 17 NFL betting market opened Baltimore at -3.5 for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 47. Both numbers were holding steady in the early betting action.

Dolphins Betting Preview

Miami is 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS its last six times out after downing Dallas last Sunday 22-20. The Dolphins led that game 13-7 at the half and 19-10 through three quarters, fell behind 20-19 with three minutes left, but drove 64 yards to a game-winning field goal at the buzzer.

With the victory, Miami clinched a playoff spot.

The Dolphins out-gained the Cowboys 375-339. So Miami has now out-gained seven of its last eight opponents and out-rushed six of its last eight foes.

Two weeks ago, the Dolphins held the Jets to 103 yards of offense and won 30-0. Yeah, it was the Jets, but still.

At 11-4 overall, Miami can clinch the No. 1 seed for the upcoming AFC playoffs with a win on Sunday and another next week against Buffalo.

Ravens Betting Preview

Meanwhile, Baltimore rides a five-game winning streak into Sunday after stuffing big, bad San Francisco Monday night 33-19. The Ravens, getting six points, fell behind 5-0 early but battled back to lead 16-12 at the half. Baltimore then scored the first 17 points of the second half to create a blowout.

The Ravens got out-gained by the 49ers 429-343 but won the turnover battle 5-0, giving San Francisco QB Purdy headaches all night.

Baltimore has now out-gained and out-rushed four of its last five opponents.

Two weeks ago, the Ravens ran the ball for 251 yards and beat Jacksonville 23-7.

If Baltimore hadn’t blown that game against Cleveland back in November it would own a 10-game winning streak.

At 12-3 overall, the Ravens can clinch the top seed in the AFC with a win Sunday.

These teams met most recently back in September of last season, a wild 42-38 Dolphins win also at Baltimore. That was the game the Ravens led 35-14 into the fourth quarter, then blew.

Common Opponents

These teams have played two common opponents this season, the Chargers and Titans. Baltimore played those foes to 2-0 SU and ATS and +105 yards per game, Miami to 1-1 SU and ATS and +33 YPG.

NFL Betting Trends

Baltimore would be 11-4 ATS at -3.5 all season.

Totals Report

The Overs are 8-7 in Dolphins games this season, which are averaging 52 total points.

The Unders are 8-7 in Ravens games, which are averaging 44 points.

The Overs played 10-6 in the NFL last week, but on the season, the Unders are 131-109.

Free NFL Betting Pick

These teams are only separated by one game in the W-L columns but Baltimore is operating on a different level right now. The Ravens dominate good teams like Detroit and San Francisco, and their only loss since early October was a game they blew against the Browns. Also, Baltimore out-played Miami last year before that crazy Dolphins comeback. The Ravens won’t let that happen again. We’re betting on Baltimore Sunday, minus the points.