Dolphins vs. Patriots: Week 5 NFL Picks Against the Spread
Miami Dolphins (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS) at New England Patriots (1-3, 1-2-1), 10/6/24
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Oct. 6
Where: Gillette Stadium
TV: Fox
NFL betting odds: Mia +1/NE -1
Over/under: 36.5
A pair of 1-3 teams meet when the Patriots host the Dolphins for an AFC East divisional bout on Sunday afternoon in Foxboro.
Both teams opened this season with victories but have since lost three straight. Neither is getting great production from the quarterback position.
NFL Betting Line
The NFL Week 5 betting market opened New England at -1 over Miami, with an O/U of right around 36. Both numbers were holding steady in early betting action.
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Dolphins Betting Preview
Miami is 1-3 on the season after falling at home to previously winless Tennessee Monday night 31-12. The Dolphins, starting former Raven Tyler Huntley at QB, only trailed 9-6 early in the third quarter. But the ‘Fins gave up the next 13 points of the game and could not respond.
Miami only allowed 244 yards of Titans offense but only produced 184 of its own. And guys not named Huntley managed just 66 yards on the ground.
On the prop board, Huntley completed 14 passes but for just 96 yards, which was under his passing total of 162.5. Also, RB Achane ran under 57.5 yards (15 on ten carries), WR Hill caught under 51.5 yards (23 on four balls), and WR Waddle caught under 36.5 yards (36 on four balls).
The Dolphins opened this season with a 20-17 victory over Jacksonville, then lost to Buffalo 31-10. They also lost QB Tagovailoa (concussion) for who knows how long. Miami then started Skylar Thompson at QB at Seattle and lost 24-3.
Word early this week was the Dolphins will stick with Huntley for Sunday.
Patriots Betting Preview
Meanwhile, New England is also 1-3 on the season after losing at San Francisco last Sunday, with a score of 30-13. The Patriots, catching 10.5 points, gave up the first 20 points of the game. They pulled to within 20-10 early in the third quarter but immediately allowed the 49ers to drive 70 yards to a touchdown and mounted little challenge from there.
Late in the game, with a chance at a back-door cover, QB Brissett got strip-sacked inside the San Francisco red zone, to the dismay of those of us who backed New England financially.
The Patriots got out-gained by the Niners 431-216 and turned the ball over three times, basically handing San Francisco 10 points.
On the prop board, QB Brissett, thanks to some garbage-time yardage, ended up with 168 passing yards, which played over his total of 164.5. But RB Stevenson only tallied 43 yards on the ground, under his rushing total of 55.5.
New England opened this season with a 16-10 win at Cincinnati, then lost a tough game at home to Seattle in overtime 23-20. But then the Patriots got out-played by the Jets and lost 24-3, then got out-played by the 49ers last week.
When New England can run the ball, they can keep things close. They ran for 170 yards in Week 1 and 185 in Week 2. But when they can’t – they ran for 149 total the last two weeks- they’re in trouble.
Dolphins-Patriots Recent History
Miami is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS over the last seven meetings with New England. Last year, the Dolphins swept the two games from the Patriots by scores of 24-17 and 31-17.
Tagovailoa quarterbacked both those games for Miami against Mac Jones for New England. Neither of those guys will play in this game Sunday.
Home teams are 32-31 SU and 28-34 ATS this season.
Favorites are 38-26 SU and 28-35 ATS this season.
The teams that scored first this season were 38-26 SU and 42-21 ATS. Miami has yet to draw first blood this season.
Totals Report
Unders are 3-1 in Dolphins games this season, which are averaging 37 total points.
Totals are split 2-2 in Patriots games, which are averaging 35 points.
Unders are 33-30 in the NFL this season.
Prop Bets
Miami rookie RB Jaylen Wright, who got nine carries Monday night and may get more this week, is catching +1100 to score a touchdown.
New England RB Antonio Gibson, who may get increased touches this week thanks to Stevenson’s fumbling problem, is catching +190 to score one TD and +1100 to score two.
Free NFL Betting Pick
Miami is really having trouble without Tagovailoa, scoring one touchdown in two games without him. And that came in garbage time. Meanwhile, we’ve already bet New England three times this season because we think they can run the ball a bit and play some defense. If Brissett can get a little something going through the air, all the better. We’re playing the Patriots Sunday.
