Betting Breakdown: Dolphins vs. Packers Point Spread Prediction

Miami Dolphins (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS)
NFL Football Week 13
Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, Thanksgiving Day, November 28, 2024, at 8:20 PM EST
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
TV: NBC/Peacock

The Miami Dolphins come to Lambeau Field for a Thursday Night Football showdown with the Green Bay Packers. This is Thanksgiving, with this taking place in the normal TNF slot, as the Dolphins come into Green Bay for this key week 13 spot. Both teams did well on Sunday and will try to keep it going on the quick turnaround. A 34-15 win over the Patriots on Sunday saw the Dolphins getting back to their high-flying offensive ways as they try to climb out of a funk and get back to .500, which they could do with a win this week. However, the Packers are 8-3, showing what they’re about last week in a 38-10 smashing of the 49ers. What’s the right move for Thursday?

Tough Spot for the Dolphins

Some degree of respect should be extended to a Dolphins team that lost 6 out of 7 games as they deal with different issues, namely personnel issues with some key guys, including QB Tua Tagovailoa. At 2-6, it looked to be a wrap, but three straight wins have restored order, with last week’s win being really the first time we have seen it all come together, where Tua is slinging it, with running backs contributing on the ground and in a big way aerially, with big numbers for all involved. So, seeing that in such living color on Sunday shows that Miami can’t be disregarded as we go through this final 6-game stretch.

At the same time, the Dolphins did get some people back and were expected to be better than the team that was flat on their backs when losing 6 out of 7 games. They’ve been winning and by decent margins these last three games, but we also realize that beating the Rams, the Raiders, and the Patriots doesn’t mean you can go into Lambeau and take down a Packers team that has won 6 of 7 games, with their only loss in that stretch coming to Detroit. After being at home for a few weeks, the Dolphins now come into Lambeau and while Green Bay is not the frosty locale it will shortly become, guys on the ‘Fins might be feeling some cold for the first time this season.

Openings for the Dolphins

First off, the Packers are better than what they seem. There’s a lot of value wrapped up in things that might not jump out when watching the Packers here and there. They have great coaching, they have strength along the lines of scrimmage, and their defense is tough. Joshua Jacobs has been a nice addition, giving their run-game some teeth. Still, it seems they would be vulnerable. Jordan Love has been fine, though he’s a tick off his form from last season. Their receiving pool is deep, but no one really steps from the pack to be a star. Guys can have big games and disappear for a number of weeks. When things are clicking, they can do what we saw last week and at other points recently and put up 30-something points of scoring. Then, there’s other spots where they don’t click and you get more in the 14-24 range. Miami has held opponents to 19 or fewer points in five of their last seven games.

When laboring over all the Xs and Os, one point radiates in the event that the Dolphins go on a meaningful second-half surge this season, which is we continue to see the Miami offense pop. With a productive backfield led by De’Von Achane, along with weapons like Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and surging tight end Jonnu Smith, maybe they’re getting into a groove. And while noting that it’s one thing to do this at home to the Patriots and it’s quite another to see this recipe translate in Lambeau, it’s at least of some promise that we see the Miami offense doing the things that make them an X-factor.

Edges for Green Bay

One is bankability. The Packers don’t need a bunch of stars to align correctly for their formula for success to resonate. But they have some lining up anyway, with good form and coming off some easy games for the short week, along with being at home in a cross-conference matchup with a warm-weather team. We’ve seen their defense have a few slip-ups, but they’re coming along and getting better and peaking at the perfect time for a Packers’ team that has big plans this season. And while not above reproach, a home Green Bay defense is not the ideal candidate for an incoming offense to have a giant day of production.

While there are no superstars on this Green Bay offense, they have this understated level of effectiveness that is easy to overlook. On the Dolphins, you have electric big-name talent that can quicker entice the eye of the bettor. With Green Bay, it’s more of a committee approach, with Love taking what the game gives him and knowing that someone will be open. And if one guy goes down, they have such a deep cast of receivers that it doesn’t seem to matter. And these are the teams you have to make a special point about not overlooking or low-rating.

Lay the Points

While the Packers would appear to be in a good position at 8-3, they are still only in third place in a stacked NFC North this season. They still have work to do and won’t be taking it easy. I don’t question whether Miami can dial in some offensive success in this spot, but will be answered by a more-together Green Bay offense that doesn’t have a handcuffed quarterback, whose defense can also be counted on to deliver. I see a second-half spurt allowing the Packers to create enough separation to get the win and cover at home. I’ll take the Packers.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Green Bay Packers minus 3.5 points.