Dolphins vs. Jets NFL Week 18 Pick: Will the Jets Quit?

The Quit Factor

In the final week of the NFL season, there’s an additional element you need to consider when doing your handicapping – The Quit Factor.

Which teams are going to play hard and try to win?
Which teams failed to make the playoffs and are just going to mail it in?
Which teams made the playoffs, and will they be resting their starters or trying to win to improve their postseason positioning?

Looking at the games on this week’s card, one team sticks out for Most Likely to Not Succeed – the NY Jets.

It’s been an abysmal year for the Jets. They’re tied for the second-worst record in the league at 4-12.

They’re coming off a 40-14 loss to Buffalo.
They’ve dropped four of their last five games.
They’ve dropped 11 of their last 13, with one of the two wins coming against the equally incompetent Jaguars, also at 4-12.

They fired head coach Saleh after a week five loss to Minnesota.
They’ve gone 2-9 since then.

They fired general manager Joe Douglas after a week 11 loss to Indianapolis.
They’ve gone 1-4 since then.

And then there’s the whole Aaron Rodgers mess. Over the last two weeks Rodgers has been using the media to take cheap shots at the Jets owner Woody Johnson, angling for a trade. He has become a locker room cancer – most players don’t want to play with a guy who doesn’t want to be their teammate. While the Jets were cleaning house and dumping their head coach and general manager, they foolishly kept the part that should have been the first one cut out – their primadonna QB.
In his last start Rodgers went 12/18 for only 112 yards, 0 TD’s and two INT’s before being replaced by Tyrod Taylor.
And he pulled himself out of the game, it wasn’t the head coach’s call.
HE PULLED HIMSELF OUT!
Yeah, Rodgers is a real competitor, the kind of guy I want in the game – when I’m betting the other team!

How sloppy are the Jets these days?
One of my favorite prop bets is the Over/Under on the number of penalties committed by both teams (unfortunately, it’s impossible to find these days; God, I miss The Greek and Five Dimes.) For NFL games the number is usually between 10′ and 12′, for both teams COMBINED.
Last week the Jets committed 16 penalties all by themselves!

A play AGAINST the Jets means I’m taking Miami. Despite a subpar season the Dolphins find themselves still alive for a playoff spot. They need to win their game against the Jets and they need a win by Kansas City.
If you’re desperate for a win, you can’t ask for a better team to face than the Jets.
And in most circumstances, you can’t ask for a better team “to need to get a win” for you than the Chiefs.
But KC has already locked up home-field throughout the playoffs, and Andy Reid has said he’ll be resting some of his starters, including Mahomes.
And they’re playing a Denver team that’s still in the playoff hunt and desperate for a win.
That’s not the best of news for Miami fans who want to see their team in the postseason but they have hope in this – the Chiefs have made the playoffs in nine consecutive seasons previous to this year and they’ve won eight of their last nine regular season games, including two against Denver.

So I’ve got a Miami team with a strong incentive to win against a NY team that couldn’t care less, with a locker room cancer QB who is clearly past his prime and is petulantly primping for a trade.
The only thing I don’t like about this bet is that Miami is the obvious choice.
But sometimes the obvious choice is the right one, too.

Key Personnel Issues

As always, it comes down to QB’s.
I hope Rodgers plays for the Jets, but if he doesn’t, I get Tyrod Taylor, and I’m okay with that.
Yes, Taylor threw for two TD’s when he replaced Rodgers in last week’s game but that came in garbage time, when Buffalo was up 40-0 and had backups in the game.
He won’t find the going as easy this week against Miami’s defense, a D that’s top 10 in passing yardage surrendered per game and points allowed.

Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said that Tua Tagovailoa is unlikely to play this week due to a hip injury.
And I’m okay with that, too.
Tua is too “hit or miss” for me. When he’s on he’s ON, but when he’s off he’s AWFUL. That means I get Tyler Huntley at QB.
The Dolphins signed Huntley off of the Raven’s practice squad earlier this season.
In three previous starts with the Fins he went 1-2, with losses to Tennessee and Indianapolis, and a win on the road at New England.
Then, last week against Cleveland, he went 22/26 for 225 yards. He threw for one touchdown and ran for another. That puts him at 2-1 as a starting QB on the road and I’m counting on the experience he gained last week at Cleveland plus a full week of reps with the starters in practice this week to get the job done against a pitiful Jets squad.

When to Buy Recommendation

The line opened Miami – 2′.
For reasons I can’t explain, money has come in on the Jets, and it’s currently anywhere from Miami -1 to New York -1. (And no, it’s not a “trap bet.” There’s no such thing. See my article dated September 13th for the inside scoop on what goes on in the room when the lines are being made.)
The line’s moving in my favor so I’ll wait to buy this one and post my number in the PredictEm forum.

This week’s play:

Miami (wait to buy)Recap: 1-0
Record: 13-15.3
Review: With my NFL regular season in the red, I really needed a win last week. And I got one with Detroit, thanks to the Asterisk Play, which is now a 12-3, 80% Fade overall, 11-3 Fading home teams. (Unfortunately, I don’t have any this week.)

During the week, talk of whether Lion’s head coach Dan Campbell would play his starters or not dominated the conversation. I had no doubt about how he would play this game and didn’t even consider it when I was handicapping the contest.
It’s Dan Campbell – of course, he’s going to play his starters and go for the win. For the same reason Andy Reid has won eight of the last nine final games of the season – they know winning is not a light switch you can just easily turn off and on. You always want your team in a winning mode rather than coming off a loss.

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