Dolphins vs. Jets: Best Bets & Prediction Against the Spread

Miami Dolphins (8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS) vs. New York Jets (4-12 SU, 5-11 ATS)
NFL Football Week 18
Date/Time: Sunday, January 5, 2025 at 4:25PM EST
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
TV: Fox

The Miami Dolphins come to East Rutherford for an AFC East showdown with the New York Jets to close out the regular season for both teams. For the Jets, things continued to get ugly last week, as they dropped their 6th game in 7 tries in an ugly 40-14 loss to Buffalo. They now close out what has been a rough season against a visiting Miami squad that kept their hopes alive last week with a 20-3 win in Cleveland. Trying to make up for lost time, the Dolphins are closing fairly well, with three wins in their last four. What’s the move for this game?

What’s on the Line For Miami?

What at one point seemed to be a wildly-improbable path to the postseason for Miami has seen some positive developments in the last week, the Colts losing in an upset to the Giants last week being of major help. Now their playoff path is reduced to them winning this game and the Chiefs beating the Broncos this week. Part one of that seems doable, as beating the Jets hasn’t been that hard lately. The Chiefs beating the Broncos having already locked up the top-seed in the conference and likely to not be going close to all-out is the trickier part of the equation. Still, with the Chiefs and Broncos playing their game at the same time as the Dolphins, and unless they see Denver blowing out Kansas City, they’re going to be trying to do their part.

Dolphins: A Good Spot?

Week 14 wasn’t some distant memory that it doesn’t matter at al and the Jets did go into Miami, taking the ‘Fins to overtime before losing. Aaron Rodgers threw for 339 yards and they ran the ball well in spots, as well, even with RB Breece Hall out of action. So, they gain a piece, whereas Miami lost one, with Jaylen Waddle a key part of their overtime win on December 8 and now on IR. It was a back-and-forth game that was very evenly matched, which serves as some food for thought for those who are maybe overly enthusiastic about taking a position on Miami this week.

That first game between these two teams, however, was coming at a time when, despite the season being lost, the Jets and Rodgers had started to get some things cooking. Granted, the standards had dropped pretty low by this point, but between weeks 11 and 15, we were seeing a greater vitality on offense and more of a glimpse of what the Jets were picturing this season, albeit on a reduced scale. But these last two weeks perhaps show what they’re really all about—a dysfunctional mess with organizational issues at all levels and guys who are really starting to show the signs of a horrific season.

Just when it looked like Rodgers was showing us that he’s coming around and offering some appeal for next season, the Jets put forth two gigantic stinkers. To put up a total of 23 combined points against first the Rams’ defense and then a Buffalo “D” that had been giving up gobs of production was borderline-sickening for those unfortunate enough to have read into it positively when the Jets showed some good signs leading up to these last few weeks. On some levels for Rodgers and his weapons, this isn’t a horrible spot. They can play the role of spoiler against their division rivals. Will any of this resonate with a team that has been a huge failure this season, appears to be near death at the finish line, and is taking on a team with something to play for?

Not Ignoring Miami’s Drawbacks

While the Jets certainly deserve more guff for this season, it doesn’t mean the Dolphins are off the hook. Winning a few down the stretch is nice, but the things that put them in a bad position still persist. They’ve gotten down-seasons from most of their star players, with injuries not helping. Their offensive approach seems like it is now driven by the need to keep Tua Tagovailoa healthy. They have good backs but never seem to run the ball all that effectively. Their defense, while good in spots, can also recede badly on a given day. All told, they’re not an altogether bankable product. One would usually be inclined to defer to such a team fighting for its playoff life being served up a meatball in their final regular season game. Tua is banged up, as well, and missed the last game, with his status uncertain. Last week in the Miami win, we saw some good play from Tyler Huntley. The point is that while it looks easy and Miami is in reasonable-enough form, nothing is a slam-dunk this season with these Dolphins.

Lay the Number

Something tells me with the organizational chasm that exists within the Jets, a vintage Rodgers commandeering this offense to great heights on Sunday doesn’t seem all that likely. Not that the Miami equation is all that appealing, but arriving to this point of the season in a status of functionality counts for a lot when the team on the other sideline is hanging on for dear life. And maybe playing two playoff teams in the last two weeks has made the Jets look worse than they are. Maybe being at home in a divisional setting against a more-manageable opponent will again give way to the things we saw several weeks ago. I don’t see it and envision the Dolphins leaving MetLife with the win on Sunday. I’m taking the Dolphins.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Miami Dolphins minus 1.5 points.