Dolphins vs. Chargers Pick: Who Has the Edge in Week 1

Miami Dolphins (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

Week 1 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 4:25PM EDT

Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California

TV: CBS

Point Spread: MIA +3/LAC -3 (Boost your bankroll with a sportsbook bonus code!)

Over/Under Total: 51

The Miami Dolphins make the trip out west for a week one AFC faceoff with the Los Angeles Chargers. We have a 10-win team in the Chargers from last season, along with the 9-win Dolphins, with both teams eliminated in the wild-card round of the AFC playoffs last season. Mike McDaniel starts his second season at the helm, with the Chargers’ Brandon Staley beginning his third season. Hopes are high with both teams, but there are also questions and concerns that could send either team’s fortunes in any number of directions. Let’s see who has the better chance of getting us the cover in week one at SoFi Stadium.

Areas of Strength Each Team Looks to Unleash

For the purposes of a one-game breakdown, examining Tua Tagovailoa’s durability and concussion concerns might not hold much water. When he was out there, he was able to make it happen, getting a lot out of what turned into perhaps the best 1-2 punch at wide receiver in Tyreek Hill (questionable) and Jaylen Waddle (questionable). They can run the ball really well and, all told, might even be more bankable on offense than Justin Herbert and his pieces, who seem to surface in a big way with slightly less regularity.

Getting Joey Bosa back healthy to go along with Khalil Mack should give the Bolts a real pass-rushing presence. Also costing the Chargers last season on this side were JC Jackson getting hurt. His returning at the corner will help, as well. They have talent on this side of the ball, but it never quite came off the way the Chargers were expecting or what the talent on this side of the ball would suggest. Staley does game-plan well, and last season’s 23-17 win in this very stadium attests to that. Other than a 60-yard connection from Tua to Hill, they kept the Dolphins’ offense relatively quiet. So maybe the Dolphins won’t be able to count on the Chargers’ shortcomings on that side of the ball as much as some might think.

I also think there is something to be said for Tua’s overall health predicament when he’s facing defenses like this. With Derwin James and other hard-hitters, along with a pass rush that could flourish in spots, we might see a toned-down offensive approach. The Miami offensive line saw some things break their way last year with the signings of Terrod Armstead (questionable) paying off, as well as Connor Williams. But as we saw last season, there are issues and some soft spots along that line, an outstanding issue that can rear its head in a matchup against this Chargers’ defense.

The Flip Side of the Coin

We also didn’t really see the Bolts thrive on offense in this spot last season, getting in the end zone just twice. I think some better news on the injury front could do wonders for a talented Miami “D.” Vic Fangio has shown his chops in the role of defensive coordinator, coming on board to commandeer a group with some fine pieces. The preseason injury to Jalen Ramsey hurts, but their secondary is OK with Xavien Howard and a pair of impactful safeties in Jevon Holland and Brandon Jones. Up front, Jaelan Phillips is on the precipice of becoming a star. They only had 14 takeaways last season and look for better with Fangio at the helm.

It’s just that any growth we’re seeing with the Miami defense, especially up front, is partially negated by the Chargers finally stumbling upon a successful formula along their O-line. As is usually the case, they’re a few injuries from it not looking so good, and depth is an issue, but alas, this is week one, and Miami will be seeing an intact line that made a lot of strides last season. That could mean a big game from a fresh-legged Austin Ekeler, which opens up things for a varied and powerful aerial cast. We’ll see if rookie first-round receiver Quentin Johnston can give a little edge to a 1-2 receiver punch in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen that has gone slightly stale. Herbert has pass-catchers on this offense that cover a lot of the field, with Ekeler maybe the most dangerous receiving back in the league, tight end Gerald Everett, mid-level routes from Allen, and deeper stuff to Williams. It’s going to be a lot for a Miami secondary that was expecting to have more firepower to contain.

Major Questions

Putting Jeff Wilson on IR doesn’t help the variety of the Miami run game, but it may still be a more hidden aspect of their offense. With Raheem Mostert and rookie Devon Achane (questionable), this could be a part of their offense we see more of in the future. Looking back on last season, there just have to be spots where McDaniel was kicking himself for going away from the run game when it was working well. I wouldn’t rule out an overall effort to create more balance, which will also help keep Tua less out of danger. But Miami faces a real issue with Herbert. In last season’s game, they were fortunate the Bolts saw the end zone just twice, even with Herbert putting up almost 400 yards. With issues on that secondary in regards to stoutness and their lack of takeaway ability, is there a chance we see a home Chargers squad control this game aerially?

Lay the Points

I think the Chargers might have an edge here with the advantages they possess with a better O-line, a more playmaking defense, and, dare I say, a better quarterback. I think the best way for Tua and this Miami offense to gain an edge would be to air it out and connect big deep. I’m just not sure that’s the best way to beat the Chargers, and we saw how hard it was for the ‘Fins to do that to them last season. I also don’t think it’s helpful that Miami enters 2023 dealing with some injuries in key spots already. I see the Chargers’ offense as having more routes to success, whether it be the run game, the short passing game, or what might be an even enhanced deep-passing game this season. I see a competitive game with the Chargers creating a little separation at the end and covering the spread.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Los Angeles Chargers minus 3 points. Note: Be sure to check out one of our the NFL picks pages on the Predictem site! —> NFL Underdog of the Week Pick (Updated every Friday!)