Dolphins vs. 49ers Week 16: Loot’s Pick Against the Spread

NFL Football Week 16
Date/Time: Sunday, December 22, 2024, at 4:25PM EST
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
TV: CBS

 

Betting Odds

Point Spread: SF +1/MIA -1 (Bovada)

Money Line: SF Even/MIA -120

Over/Under Total: 46

 

The San Francisco 49ers take on the Miami Dolphins in week 16 action from Hard Rock Stadium. Both teams enter this one with the exact same record, both straight-up and against the spread. Not many people would have forecasted both of these teams entering week 16 at 6-8, with their playoff hopes barely flickering, but such is the case. A 20-12 loss to Houston on Sunday has the Dolphins right on the brink. And the Niners are coming off a deflating Thursday Night Football loss to the Rams at home, 12-6. They get a little longer to lick their wounds heading into this spot. Who can deliver the cover on Sunday?

State of Both Teams

When you have two teams that were fancied by most to make the playoffs, and you enter these late-season spots where both teams have underachieved, motivation can carry more importance. In terms of playing to get into the playoffs, it’s a bit tricky with both teams hanging on for dear life at this point in the season. Still, when that hope hasn’t been extinguished officially, teams will typically be out there trying. But these conditions existed last week, too, and neither team was able to get the win. Not all teams are guaranteed to even be able to respond to urgency, being that bad play is what created the urgency in the first place and that’s not as easy to shake off as some might think. In other words, we have two teams here that should be ultra-urgent, while knowing each squad has major shortcomings that led to them both being in this predicament.

Who is in Better Shape?

Both teams are banged up, but one almost gets the impression that despite seeing Jaylen Waddle leave the game in the second quarter last week against Houston, Miami is in better shape personnel-wise. Still, injuries have taken chunks out of both teams—on offense, on defense, and along both lines where guys are out in bunches across both rosters. It’s a big part of why both teams came up short this season according to expectations.

Beyond injuries is the component of morale. It doesn’t appear to be that high for either team. For the Niners, the defending conference champions and a Super Bowl favorite in the minds of some, they land here in Miami in week 16 with a decided thud. Injuries have robbed them, key guys weren’t as good as they were last season, there is bickering on the sidelines, and the recipe for success has certainly soured. And not that Miami is sky-high after last week, seeing another player carted off, as they scored one measly touchdown in a critical game, but maybe they’re not quite as crestfallen as their opponents as we turn to the final stretch drive of the regular season.

Tough Spot for San Francisco

After coming up with a pitiful two field goals worth of scoring against the Rams’ defense at home, San Fran takes to the road—a difficult cross-country road trip out of conference. It might not be what the doctor ordered strictly in terms of a good spot to bounce back. Opponent-wise, they have some things going for them this week. They’re facing a team dealing with some of the same issues they have with voids in certain areas and a general context of underachievement. And while they do benefit from it being a late-game, it’s still not what you’d call a cushy spot for the Niners.

The Miami defense has not created any fear, perhaps, but even in the midst of a bad season, their defense hasn’t been torched that often in the last two months. They’re not in great form now perhaps, having allowed a somewhat-robust 76 combined points in their last three games. But when pitted against offenses that deliver the amount of fire the 49ers have been producing lately, they are still somewhat holding up in decent fashion. But perhaps the same thing can be said of the San Fran defense. While being a unit that has been fleeced of their upside by injuries and duck-soup for the better offenses they face, they can still be serviceable within this framework—taking on offensive units that are struggling to find their footing.

Which Team’s Stars Can Rise on Sunday?

Across many areas of analysis in this game, things sort of wash over each other. In the end, it could come down to which team’s stars can deliver a big play or two to tip the scales in their team’s favor. And maybe in that sense, guys like Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, and Jonnu Smith are a slightly more appealing group than a depreciated Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel in the midst of his worst season, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, and their third or fourth choices in the backfield. That maybe asking for a couple big plays is a less-quixotic request for the Dolphins than it is for the Niners at this point in the season.

Take the Small Home Favorite

It can be an extra-tough decision dealing with two underachieving teams that enter the season’s late stages with a gaggle of different issues. Whatever you try to sink your teeth into only has so much meat on it, whichever angle you choose. And maybe you could say that with no one running away with the NFC West, maybe the Niners’ playoff hopes are slightly more pertinent. Be that as it may, I see this as another possible fall-flat scenario for the Niners, with Miami getting across enough good plays to get it done. I’ll take Miami.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Miami Dolphins minus 1 point.