Dolphins vs. Seahawks Week 3 Predictions: Thompson vs. Smith

Miami Dolphins (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (2-0, 0-1-1), 9/22/24

When: 4:05 pm ET Sunday, Sept. 22

Where: Lumen Field

TV: CBS

Dolphins vs Seahawks: Betting Odds

NFL betting odds: Miami +4.5 / Seattle -4.5

Money line: Miami +180 / Seattle -220

Over/Under: 41.5

Seattle is shooting for a 3-0 start as they host the Dolphins on Sunday afternoon. The Seahawks are riding high after winning on the East Coast last week, while the Dolphins, now without their starting QB Tua Tagovailoa, are trying to bounce back from a tough loss to Buffalo.

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 3 NFL betting market opened with Seattle at -6.5 after confirmation that Tagovailoa would not play. Early betting action dropped the spread to Seattle -4.5 with an Over/Under of 41.5.

Dolphins Betting Preview

Miami comes into this game at 1-1 after losing to Buffalo 31-10 at home last Thursday. The game was tied 7-7 early, but Miami gave up 17 unanswered points in the second quarter and couldn’t recover.

The Dolphins not only lost the game, but also starting QB Tagovailoa, who suffered another concussion in the third quarter. Miami will start 3rd-year backup Skylar Thompson at quarterback in his place.

Despite the loss, Miami out-gained Buffalo 351-247 but three costly interceptions from Tagovailoa led directly to 17 Buffalo points.

In Week 1, Miami edged out Jacksonville 20-17 with a last-second field goal. After winning 11 games last season, the Dolphins are playing against a win total of 10.5 this year, but reaching that mark will be tough with Tua out for at least four weeks.

Seahawks Betting Preview

Seattle improved to 2-0 after beating New England 23-20 in overtime last Sunday. The Seahawks came back from an early 7-0 deficit and eventually tied the game with a field goal in the final minute of regulation. They then won in overtime with a defensive stop and a 71-yard drive for another field goal.

The Seahawks out-gained the Patriots 358-310 but were out-rushed 185-46. On the prop board, QB Geno Smith threw for 327 yards, nearly 100 more than his over/under of 230.5.

Seattle opened the season with a 26-20 win over Denver. After winning 9 games last season, the Seahawks are playing against a win total of 7.5 and are already a quarter of the way there.

NFL Betting Trends and Totals

Home teams are 16-15 SU and 13-17 ATS in the NFL this season. Favorites are 21-11 SU and 14-17 ATS.

Seattle is 20-17 SU and 15-19-3 ATS with Geno Smith as their starter.

Totals Report

Unders are 2-0 in Dolphins games this season, with an average of 39 total points scored.

Overs are 2-0 in Seahawks games, which have averaged 45 total points.

Unders are 17-14 across the NFL this season.

Prop Bets

Miami RB De’Von Achane, who had 29 touches and one touchdown last week, is +110 to score once and +550 to score twice.

Seattle RB Zach Charbonnet, who had 19 touches and a score last week, is +350 to score twice.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Skylar Thompson started a playoff game for Miami two seasons ago, and while the Dolphins only lost 34-31, he wasn’t great, completing just 18/45 passes with two interceptions. Geno Smith has been impressive so far this season and gets our edge in this matchup. These teams are otherwise evenly matched, but we expect Seattle to win the turnover battle. So far this season, teams that win the turnover battle are 19-3 SU and 16-5 ATS. We’re laying the points with the Seahawks for Sunday.