Divisional Playoffs Point Spreads
Saturday, January 12th, 2013 Games
AFC Divisional Playoffs
Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos
Point Spread: Bal +10/Den -10
Moneyline: Balt +375/Denv -475
Total: 46
Notes: The line opened with Denver at -9 and has moved up a full point despite only 43% of the public betting on Manning and Co. (Sharp action alert!) The total hasn’t moved much, opening at 45.5 and going up to 46. The public slightly favors the over here.
NFC Divisional Playoffs
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Point Spread: GB +3/SF -3
Moneyline: Cheeseheads +120/Niners -140
Over/Under: 45
Notes: The point spread in this game hasn’t moved as of Wednesday night (1/9). The books are getting tons of action on GB (62%) yet refuse to move the line. This is a firm indication that Vegas thinks the Niners cover here. The total opened at 46 and has dropped a point to 45 despite the public backing the over to the tune of 60%.
Sunday, January 13, 2013 Games
NFC Divisional Playoffs
Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons
Point Spread: Sea +2.5/ATL -2.5
Moneyline: Hawks +115/Dirty Birds -135
Total: 45.5
Notes: This game has had little line movement opeing up at 2 and moving to -2.5 in favor of the Falcons. The public is somewhat divided here as evidenced by the 54% back of the Dirty Birds. Our take is that Atlanta peaked early and Seattle is red hot. We dont usually recommend buying points but a half point buy up to +3 plus a lunch money bet on the moneyline is in order here. The total hasn’t budged off of 45.5 as the public is equally divided.
AFC Divisional Playoffs
Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots
Point Spread: Hou +9.5/NE -9.5
Moneyline: Texans +350/Pats -450
Over/Under: 47.5
Notes: The public isn’t holding any grudges against the Texans for being blown at vs. NE earlier this season. The action is somewhat divided which has allowed the books to move the game down from 10 to 9.5 and even 9 at some shops, giving them a better number and a clearcut win on a 10 point margin, which isn’t a huge key number (common final score margin) but COULD be a probable situation in this game (if not by more). The key to this game is the Pats defense which is much improved and will likely focus on stopping Arian Foster, Houstons top weapon. Will Matt Schaub have what it takes to keep up with the fast paced Pats offense? Probably not. We like New England to replicate their drubbing of Houston. Everybody loves the OVER in this game, well, except for sharp bettors. The public are hammering the OVER to the tune of almost 70%, yet the line has dropped from 49 to 47.5. Sharp money hit the UNDER early. The line is probably solid as it sits and doesn’t offer value either way. We’ve all seen what Tom Brady can do when he’s focused so the unde is no lock by any means and could result in wiseguys paying the books off big.
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