Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers Pick ATS | NFC Championship

The Detroit Lions come to Levi’s Stadium to take on the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Conference Championship Game on Sunday. In terms of expectations, things sort of panned out according to plan in the NFC, with these really being two of the better teams all season in the conference. It’s just that Detroit will be looking to go to its first-ever Super Bowl, something the 49ers franchise has achieved 7 times. With wins over the Rams and a tough Buccaneers team in the divisional round, 31-23, the Lions are ready. The Niners had to come from behind on Saturday to nip the Packers at the wire, 24-21. Who should we get behind in this big conference title game?

Tough One to Call

These teams have a lot in common, both led by quarterbacks who had to fight to get to where they’re at—with the Niners’ Purdy the last pick of the draft, while Goff resuscitated his career after being written off. They both have impactful tight ends, with George Kittle a big factor and the Lions getting a really good rookie in Sam LaPorta. They both run the ball well, with Christian McCaffrey having been huge for the Niners this season, while the Lions have a dual-pronged approach with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Both teams have talented, game-changing receivers, but we will need to keep an eye on the status of Deebo Samuel, who was hurt in the win over the Packers. It’s not just the production Samuel brings which is key. Beyond that, his absence in the lineup seems to register in a really bad way for some reason on this SF offense.

One can almost understand someone perceiving the Niners as a more advanced version of the Lions. All the things we’ve seen on the Lions that have been improved and are key parts of their success are things the 49ers have going for them, too. The Lions can run the ball well, but with CMC, the Niners have the best in the business. The Lions have that dangerous aerial crew, but the Niners probably have a little more juice overall at wide receiver with Brandon Aiyuk especially if Deebo is good to go. And while the Detroit defense has made strides this season, they still have a “D” with some holes on it, namely a level of pass defense that doesn’t immediately suggest Super Bowl contender.

Edges for Detroit?

The magnitude won’t be lost on the Lions, as this is their biggest moment in the Super Bowl era, only the second time they’ve been playing to get into the Super Bowl. You’d think that has to register with the coaching staff and the players. I think the injury quotient shakes out in their favor, as well, as we’ve seen the diminished nature of a San Fran offense without Deebo Samuel. And at press time, with that point-spread lingering around 6.5 and 7, one could say the Lions are being disrespected on that front, where they appear on the surface to be at least the slightly better value in this equation. And while there are drawbacks to their defense, they are tough against the run. If Detroit can face off with the Niners where their main aerial threat is out or compromised, while shutting down or greatly reducing McCaffrey’s effectiveness, they can get results.

Edges for San Francisco

First of all, the Niners are home, and that’s big this time of the season. It might even loom larger with a Lions’ team that was a lot more solid at home. I think that aspect of the Lions’ profile has been overstated, as they’ve had a handful of good showings on the road this season. It just seems there’s a higher likelihood for trouble away from home, where their offense doesn’t always fire, and the better offenses they face generally have more success in this context. This is still a tough ask for Detroit. And while San Fran did lose three times on this field this season, one was a week 18 throwaway game, one was to a dynamite Ravens team, with the other coming during that weird three-game losing patch in the midseason.

Things to Watch

For Detroit, I’d make sure Frank Ragnow is in there, though it looks like he will be after returning after being hurt in the win against Tampa. I think the Deebo Samuel thing is a key consideration. It will be tempting for potential SF backers to reason their way around this, but his absence has really been a game-changer for this offense, and rather than trying to reason it out, it might just be better to accept that for some reason, this SF offense is a diminished force without Samuel to an extent that surpasses reason. And naturally, the idea of a Samuel-less 49ers team needing to cover a number against a hungry team that has won 14 football games this season doesn’t seem ideal.

Take the Points

I think the Lions can keep it together on defense against the pass enough to not let that torpedo their chances in this game. The idea of Deebo being out or not being capable of an impactful performance really doesn’t do favors to the idea that SF is going to cruise to victory in this spot, something you’d like to see when laying a TD. I think they’re going to have a fight on their hands with the Lions able to exact damage on offense in a number of different ways. I see the end result being a competitive game where you’re going to be happy to have this many points. I’ll take the Lions in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Detroit Lions plus 7 points.