Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints Free Pick

Detroit Lions (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (5-6 SU, 2-8-1 ATS)

NFL Football Week 13

Date/Time: Sunday December 3rd, 2023. 1:00PM (EST)

Where: Caesars Superdome New Orleans, LA

TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: DET -4/NO +4

Moneyline: DET -195/NO +170

Total: 46

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Last Thursday, the Detroit Lions were handed an embarrassing 29-22 loss to the Green Bay Packers in front of a Thanksgiving Day audience. Prior to that game, the Lions were listed as high as 9-point betting favorites against a struggling Packers team. However, Detroit coughed up multiple turnovers and got shredded through the air by Packers QB Jordan Love, who tossed three touchdown passes on the afternoon. While the Lions made the final score appear respectable, it was without question an embarrassing loss from a team that has been labeled a dark horse in the NFC.

On Sunday, the Lions will return to action and hope to right the ship when they travel to face off with the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Stadium. Like the Lions, the Saints are also on the heels of a somewhat embarrassing loss in which they lost control of the pathetic NFC South in a disappointing 24-15 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, in what can only be described as another lackluster performance on the offensive side of the football. As a result, the Saints will enter Sunday’s contest in a relatively desperate situation to keep the division hopes alive as mere 4-point underdogs to the visiting Lions.

Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Analysis

For this week’s showdown at Caesars Stadium, I believe we have to discuss the play on the offensive side of the football in determining how this match-up will likely unfold. While last week’s Thanksgiving Day blunder was embarrassing, the Lions have still been highly efficient on the offensive side of the football. Running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are both fully healthy, which means the NFL’s 6th best rushing attack, averaging 136 yards per game, should be at full strength. Meanwhile, QB Jared Goff is having a fantastic year outside of the turnover issues. Goff is completing 67% passing and has thrown for 3,075 yards with 18 touchdowns and eight picks. Goff has been getting big help from the Lions young receiving corps which is led by WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has already produced nearly 1,000 receiving yards on the season.

Simply put, the Lions have a balanced attack that can attack this New Orleans’ defense, especially on the ground. Meanwhile, the Saints have minimal optimism on the offensive side of the football. QB Derek Carr is turning out to be a 150-million-dollar bust, and his play has arguably gotten worse as the season progresses. Despite talent at the skill positions with RB Alvin Kamara and WR Chris Olave, the Saints have produced subpar results. More importantly, the Saints offense has been so inconsistent that it has been taxing on the Saints’ defense, which is constantly at a disadvantage in the time-of-possession battle. Personally, I don’t see anything, from a match-up perspective, that would give bettors confidence that the Saints can turn those trends around this week.

Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Trends

• The Lions are 15-5 ATS in the last 20 games.
• The Lions are 7-2 SU in the last nine games.
• The Lions have hit the “over” in four of the last five games.
• The Lions are 5-1 ATS in the last six games on the road.
• The Saints are 1-5 ATS in the last six games.
• The Saints have hit the “under” in 14 of the last 17 games.
• The Saints are 3-6 SU in the last nine games.
• The Saints are 7-2 ATS in the last nine games against the Lions.

Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Prediction

As alluded to above, I think this betting line is more hopeful of a Saints resurgence at home rather than a realistic illustration of what this team has produced this season. Not only has the offense been horrible, but the Saints are just 2-8-1 ATS on the season. As a result, I’m laying the points here with confidence!

Jay’s Pick: Take the Lions -4