Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Chargers Week 10 Pick & Predictions

Detroit Lions (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (4-4 SU, 3-4-1 ATS)

Week 10 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 4:05PM EST

Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California

TV: CBS

Betting Odds

Point Spread: DET -2/LAC +2 (Bovada)

Money Line: DET -135, LAC +115
Over/Under Total: 49

The Detroit Lions come to SoFi Stadium for a week ten showdown with the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. Detroit is sitting pretty at 6-2, coming off a 26-14 win over the Raiders, which followed a bye week where they’re hoping to recharge their batteries for the second half. Conversely, the Chargers are on a bit of a short week, having just smashed the Jets on the road on MNF, 27-6, to get back to .500 with their second straight win. Can they start getting on a run, or will the Lions be a reality sandwich they can’t overcome? Let’s break it down!

Are the Chargers Back After Back-to-Back Wins?

It’s good to see the Bolts winning and overcoming a 2-4 start with their season threatening to get sideways on them. At the same time, a wipeout of an off-key Jets bunch and a previous win over Chicago don’t really signal a revival, either. It’s good to see their offense back in working order, especially with the personnel issues they’ve faced with the injured Austin Ekeler, as well as receivers Josh Palmer and Mike Williams. But with Ekeler back, the offense is starting to click a little bit, though their MNF win against the Jets was more about defense and special teams. Needless to say, the difficulty ratchets up a notch or two this week.

First of all, Detroit isn’t relying on offense, though they are certainly capable of putting on a show in that regard. But other than falling flat against Baltimore a few weeks ago, they’ve been pretty tough on defense. Herbert might find himself under some pressure from a good pass rush, while mistakes can be capitalized upon by a playmaking secondary. It’s an aggressive group, and we see this Chargers’ offense struggle sometimes against good defenses like what the Lions might be able to deliver.

Tough Spot for the Lions?

A team that is, in fact, better at home, Detroit does get the rest coming off an undemanding win over the Raiders. This should pave the way for RB David Montgomery to resurface while helping other dinged-up players recoup, as well, including center Frank Ragnow. With Montgomery returning, he and Jahmyr Gibbs make for an impactful backfield that could test the Chargers in a big way. Add in receivers like Amon-Ra St. Brown and surging rookie TE Sam LaPorta, and there’s a lot of weaponry for the Lions to wield in this spot.

Then again, this is a tough spot, out of conference and on the road. The Lions benefit from being rested, while the Chargers are coming off a cross-country road game on the short week. But Jared Goff returns to a city where he surely has a lot of mixed feelings, having seen his career ascend and also tank in the City of Angels. As we saw against the Jets, the Chargers’ defense can tap into a big-play potential. They can get a bunch of turnovers and get to the QB in a big way. And if they can start putting some bad thoughts in Goff’s head, this could get rough. But the flip side to that coin is a Chargers’ defense that hasn’t really ever seen their overall stoutness match their talent level under head coach Brandon Staley.

Difficult Spot to Gauge

Of all the games on the slate, this one seems to have the widest range of possible outcomes. A very tight game or either team winning by four touchdowns seems feasible to varying degrees. Detroit can suffer on the road, but something tells me that narrative might not hold a ton of water in this building with Detroit coming off the break and fully loaded. And with the Bolts, are we going to get that vital aerial offense with Herbert doing his thing with big plays from Ekeler? Or are we going to get that pedestrian offense where they’re hitting a brick wall? You could have a game where the defense wins the day, while a shootout also seems like a possibility. In other words, it’s a game that’s quite up in the air.

I think it’s helpful for Detroit to be intact for this game while the Chargers are dealing with deficits in the personnel department. I also like the general coaching direction the Lions have, with Dan Campbell and coordinator Ben Johnson running that offense. Campbell is perceived as the dumb guy, while Brandon Staley is seen as more the brainy NFL coach, but what we’ve seen from each team almost suggests that the opposite is the case. Despite having moments, the Chargers have never seen their engine turn over fully, especially on a defense littered with big talent. I think the results we’ve seen from each team reflect that, with Detroit standing out at this point as far more of a relevant contender than the Chargers.

Lay the Number on the Small Road Favorite

It’s not a bad spot for the Chargers to score a pivotal win over a good team at home. They have a little momentum and a chance to get their nose above .500, which would put wind in their sails after losing 4 of their first six games. I just like the idea of a rested Lions team at close to full strength coming into this matchup with a head of steam. While sometimes a more-bankable proposition at home, I think this sets up well enough for Detroit to come off the bye with some fresh legs and get the win and cover in Inglewood on Sunday.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Detroit Lions minus 2 points.

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