Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings Recommended Spread Bet

Detroit Lions (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (7-7, 7-4-3), 12/24/23
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 24
Where: US Bank Stadium
TV: Fox

Betting Odds

Point spread: Det -3/Minn +3
Money line: Det -175/Minn +150
Total: 47

There won’t be any mud or snow involved but it should be a good ol’ Black and Blue battle when the Vikings and Lions meet Sunday afternoon in Minneapolis.

With a win, Detroit would clinch its first division title since 1993. But Minnesota is thinking playoffs, too, even as it starts its fourth different quarterback this season.

The Vikings dominated this rivalry for a while, but the Lions have been fighting back lately. How are we playing this game with our free NFL betting pick?

NFL Betting Odds

The Week 16 NFL betting market opened Detroit as a three-point divisional road favorite for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 47. Both numbers were holding steady in the early betting action.

Lions-Vikings Betting Preview

Detroit just bounced back from that loss at Chicago two weeks ago to beat Denver last Saturday 42-17. The Lions led 21-0 at the half, never let the Broncos get closer than 14 points from there, and covered at -5.5.

Detroit out-gained Denver 448-287 and out-rushed the Broncos 185-83. So the Lions have now out-gained five of their last seven opponents and out-rushed five of their last seven foes (not all the same).

Four games ago, Detroit got upset by Green Bay, then bounced back to beat New Orleans. The Lions then lost at Chicago but bounced back to drub Denver. This has us wondering if Detroit might be ripe for a bit of letdown this week.

Meanwhile, Minnesota just blew a game at Cincinnati last Saturday 27-24 in overtime. The Vikings, with journeyman Nick Mullens at QB, out-played the Bengals through the first three quarters and led 17-7. But Minnesota got loose defensively and allowed Cincinnati to rally and force OT. The Vikes then botched the opening series of overtime and lost on a Bengals field goal.

Minnesota out-gained Cincinnati 424-378 and out-rushed the Bengals 143-80. They just kind of gave the game away at the end.

The Vikings have now out-gained four of their last five opponents and out-rushed five of their last six foes.

Minnesota’s only 1-3 over its last four games, but the losses came by one point to Denver, by two to Chicago, and in overtime to Cincinnati.

At 7-7 overall, the Vikings would be the No. 6 seed in the NFC if the playoffs started today. But with four other teams also at 7-7, it’s a mess.

On the injury front, Minnesota RB Mattison (ankle) missed last week’s game and is questionable for Sunday. But back-up Ty Chandler ran for 132 and a touchdown in his place.

Lions-Vikings Recent History

Not long ago, Minnesota beat Detroit eight times in a row, but the Lions are 2-1 over the last three meetings. And they’d be 3-0 if they hadn’t blown last year’s game in Minneapolis.

Going back a little further, Detroit is 5-0 ATS over the last five meetings with the Vikings.

Common Opponents

These teams have played nine common opponents this season, including Chicago twice each. Detroit played those foes to 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS, and +108 yards per game, Minnesota to 5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, and +21 YPG.

NFL Betting Trends

Vikings QB Mullens is 5-13 SU, 7-10-1 ATS as an NFL starter.

Totals Report

• The Overs are 9-5 in Lions games this season, which are averaging 51 total points.
• The Unders are 10-4 in Vikings games, which are averaging 40 points.
• The Unders are 125-99 in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Detroit’s riding the NFL roller coaster as of late, up one week and down the next. And the Lions were definitely up last week. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s lost three close games recently. We’re thinking the Vikings might be due to win a close one. And Mullens did a darn good job last week. We like the Vikes for the win on the money line Sunday.