Detroit at Minnesota ATS Pick – NFL Week 7 Predictions

Detroit Lions (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS)

When: 1 PM ET Sunday, Oct. 20

Where: US Bank Stadium

TV: Fox

NFL Betting Odds

• Spread: Det +2.5 / Min -2.5
• Moneyline: Motor City +115 / SKOL -130
• Over/Under: 50

Question! Why are you still laying -110 odds when you could be laying only -105 at BAS Sportsbook?

In what we’ll call the first big showdown of this NFL season, the 5-0 Vikings and 4-1 Lions meet for an NFC North battle Sunday afternoon in Minneapolis. Minnesota still stands as one of the last two undefeated teams in the League. Meanwhile, Detroit is coming off an epic take-down of Dallas last week. This game could go a long way toward determining home-field advantage for a future playoff game, with both teams currently atop the NFC standings.

NFL Betting Odds Movement

The NFL Week 7 betting market opened with Minnesota as a -1.5 favorite and an O/U of 49. Early betting action pushed the Vikings to -2.5 and bumped the total to 50.

Lions Betting Notes

Detroit is 4-1 on the season after obliterating Dallas last Sunday 47-9. The Lions spotted the Cowboys three points, then scored 27 unanswered points. Up by three touchdowns at halftime, Detroit scored the first touchdown of the second half and cruised to another win, handing Dallas an embarrassing defeat. The Lions out-gained the Cowboys 492-251, out-rushed them 184-53, and won the turnover battle 5-0.

Jared Goff threw for 315 yards, easily surpassing his passing total of 247.5 yards, and his three touchdown passes paid +300. Running back David Montgomery’s two rushing TDs also paid +300.

Four games ago, the Lions lost to Tampa Bay 20-16 despite out-gaining the Bucs by nearly 250 yards. Since then, Detroit has won at Arizona (20-13) and beat Seattle (42-29). The Lions currently own the second-best record in the NFC but would be a five-seed if the playoffs started today. That’s why divisional games like this one are so crucial.

Minnesota Vikings Breakdown

Minnesota remains undefeated after beating the Jets 23-17 in London two weeks ago. The Vikings had a bye last week. They jumped out to a 17-0 lead against New York but allowed the Jets to pull within a field goal late before a game-sealing interception.

Quarterback Sam Darnold struggled in that game, and the Vikings produced just 253 yards of total offense. However, their defense held the Jets to 254 yards, much of it in prevent defense late in the game. Minnesota started this season with a 28-6 win over the Giants, which didn’t impress many, but their wins over San Francisco, Houston, and Green Bay—who are a collective 12-6—are noteworthy.

At 5-0, the Vikings (+7000) are tied with Kansas City (+800) as the last two undefeated teams in this season’s NFL “last to lose” pool.

Key Injuries

Detroit’s defense took a hit when star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson suffered a season-ending leg injury last Sunday. On the Vikings side, running back Aaron Jones is listed as questionable for Sunday with a sore hip. Minnesota has taken precautionary steps by acquiring RB Cam Akers from Houston earlier this week.

Key Stats and Trends

• Detroit is out-rushing opponents by an average of 158-83 yards per game this season.
• Minnesota is out-rushing opponents by an average of 115-67 yards per game.
• Teams that out-rush their opponents are 68-24 SU and 64-27 ATS this season.
• Detroit ranks 11th in time of possession at 31:17 per game, while Minnesota ranks 21st at 28:59.
• Teams that win the time of possession battle are 59-33 SU and 59-32 ATS this season.

Head-to-Head History

Minnesota beat Detroit eight times in a row from 2017 to 2022, but the Lions have won four of the last five meetings outright and covered the spread in all five. Last season, Detroit swept Minnesota by scores of 30-24 and 30-20. Both games went over the total.

Betting Trends

• Home teams are 42-47 SU and 36-52 ATS this season.
• Favorites are 61-31 SU and 49-42 ATS this season.
• Home underdogs are 7-24 SU and 10-21 ATS this season.

Totals Report

• Unders are 3-2 in Lions games, averaging 48 total points.
• Unders are 4-1 in Vikings games, averaging 43 total points.
• Overs are 47-44 in the NFL this season after going 10-4 last week.
• Overs are 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these teams.

Touchdown Props

• Minnesota RB Ty Chandler is +100 to score one touchdown and +500 to score two.
• Detroit WR Denzel Patrick is +500 to score one touchdown and +3900 to score two.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Minnesota’s 5-0 record is impressive, but we believe they’ve been playing a bit over their heads. The Vikings have been out-gained in each of their last three games but have “forced” at least two turnovers in every game. That’s not a sustainable formula. Meanwhile, Detroit should win the ground game, which is often the key to covering spreads. The Lions swept the Vikings last year and might be even better this season. Hutchinson’s absence is significant, but we still like Detroit to cover on Sunday.