Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders Total & Spread Bets

Denver Broncos (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS)
When: Sunday, October 2, 4:25 p.m.
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
TV: CBS

Point Spread: DEN +2.5/LV -2.5
Total: O/U 45.5

Outlook

Two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL face off against each other, as both the Broncos and the Raiders have really struggled to get anything going this season. Denver put another in the win column last week, but the Broncos have only just barely gotten by San Francisco and Houston without looking the least bit impressive. Denver might be 2-1, but it’s a soft 2-1, and the Broncos look nowhere near being able to challenge Kansas City in the AFC West.

Vegas has been even worse, as the Raiders have struggled to get anything going after losing their third game by five points or less. The Raiders did play well for most of the game against the Cardinals (their one home game), but they folded down the stretch and couldn’t close the deal. Truth be told, neither team has looked very good unless you want to count Denver’s defense, which has kept the Broncos’ games close and kept them playing to the under when they’ve been in action. None of Denver’s games have hit 35 points in 2022, but that hasn’t stopped the total from getting set relatively high, as bettors are banking on the Raiders’ passing attack to come through.

How the Public is Betting the Denver/Las Vegas Game

The public has seen just enough from the Raiders to trust them in this matchup, as 70% of tickets have come in on Las Vegas, and the spread has jumped from -2 to -2.5. The total has ticked up from 44.5 to 45.5.

Injury Concerns

Denver:

Safety Justin Simmons (quadricep), guard Quinn Meinerz (hamstring), cornerback Michael Ojemudia (elbow), tight end Greg Dulcich (hamstring), tackle Tom Compton (back), wide receiver Tim Patrick (knee), and linebacker Christopher Allen (foot) are out. Defensive tackle D.J. Jones (concussion), linebacker Baron Browning (knee), linebacker Jonathon Cooper (hamstring), defensive back Darius Phillips (hamstring), wide receiver Tyrie Cleveland (hamstring), and offensive lineman Billy Turner (knee) are questionable.

Las Vegas: Wide receiver D.J. Turner (ankle), cornerback Anthony Averett (thumb), tackle Brandon Parker (tricep), defensive end Jordan Jenkins (knee), and linebacker Micah Kiser (knee) are out. Cornerback Nate Hobbs (concussion), defensive lineman Neil Farrell Jr. (shoulder), wide receiver Hunter Renfrow (concussion), center Andre James (concussion), safety Tre Von Moehrig (hip), linebacker Denzel Perryman (ankle), and cornerback Rock Ya-Sin (knee) are questionable.

When Denver Has the Ball

If this is letting Russ cook, the Broncos need some new recipes. The deal for Wilson has not worked out to this point, as Denver’s offense is still a train wreck and doesn’t really show any signs of everyone getting on the same page. There’s a reason that the Broncos have played to the under every time out, and it’s because this team just doesn’t seem to know what it’s doing on that side of the ball. Courtland Sutton is a solid option at wide receiver, but the Broncos don’t have much of a running game and really aren’t feared at all on the offensive side of the ball. Nathaniel Hackett looks overmatched as a coach to this point, and he’s frankly not putting his team in the best possible position to get wins. The Broncos have gotten away with it because they’re the Iowa of the NFL: championship defense masking a weak offense. Unless Wilson can rediscover how he played in Seattle, this isn’t going to last forever.

When Las Vegas Has the Ball

If there’s an organization that defines instability, it’s been the Raiders. Las Vegas has been in every game it’s played this season under Josh McDaniels, but the Raiders have also done a great job finding a way to lose every game they’ve played this season. Like Denver, Vegas also doesn’t have anything that resembles a running game, but the one difference is that Vegas can actually throw the football pretty well. After bringing in Devante Adams in the offseason, Vegas should be slinging the football around pretty well, but the problem is that the Raiders throw it too often. Against Tennessee, Vegas threw 45 passes compared to just 19 rushes, which isn’t really the way to keep the Raiders’ already weak defense from breaking down over the course of the game. Las Vegas wants to throw it and will do so, but when you throw as often as the Raiders have, you run the risk of overwhelming your team because you’re either scoring too fast or getting off the field via a three-and-out too quickly. Against Denver’s fierce defense, the Raiders are going to find themselves having to grind out yards if they want to get anything going.

Betting Trends

There’s been an easy two-line parlay play in this series as of late: Vegas and the Under. If you’d backed the Raiders and the under whenever it’s been their turn to host the Broncos, you’d have cashed in five straight games. The Raiders have covered in eight of nine against Denver, and six straight in Vegas, and the under has dominated no matter where the game is played, cashing in nine of the teams’ past 11 meetings.

Denver has proven poor on the road as of late: the Broncos have failed to cover in four consecutive road games. Of course, the Raiders also have four straight games where they have failed to cover, so something is going to have to give for one of these teams.

Weather Report

With the stadium enclosed, the weather won’t affect anything here.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

It’s hard to pick against Wilson here, but Denver really hasn’t looked impressive at all, and the Raiders are eventually going to figure this out. Las Vegas did play well in most of its one home game before an inexplicable collapse that allowed Arizona to steal a win. This is where the Raiders tend to bounce back and get something moving, and Josh McDaniels certainly doesn’t want to lose to the team he once led.

I like the trend to continue. Give me the under with the Raiders.