Denver Broncos(4-3SU,4-3ATS) vs.Cincinnati Bengals(3-4SU, 2-4-1ATS)
NFL Week9
Date/Time:November4th, 1:00PM EST
Where:Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
TV:CBS (Regional)
byJeffHochman,Pro Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread: DEN-3.5/CIN +3.5
Over/Under Total:47
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After a frustrating loss todivisionrival PittsburghSteelerson Sunday Night Football, the Cincinnati Bengals take on the surging Denver Broncos. The Bengals were out-gained by a season-high 246 yards in the 24-17loss. TheBengalsare coming off their BYE week and willtry to find the magic in which they won three straight games tofinishSeptemberat 3-1. Cincinnati suffered anotherwin-lessOctober under Marvin Lewis due in part to a shaky running game.BenJarvusGreen-Ellis does not have the burst to produce many explosive runs and has not surpassed the 100-yard rushing mark in any game this year. Denver sits atop a watered-down AFC West, the only division leader one game over the .500 mark.The Denver Broncos had two weeks to prepare in their beat down of the Saints. You can tell that Peyton Manning and company had a lot of good practice time. This team is peaking at the right time and I have been behind them all year. I am 3-0 ATS when picking Denver. Denver out-gained theSaintsby a season-high 278 yards. The Broncos are 5-2 ITS (in the stats) this season. On the flip side, the Bengals are 4-3 ITS. Not terrible.
Denver brings in the better offense, defense, and Special Teams. The Broncos areaveraging405 yards on offense and allowing 319 yards. For the Bengals, they average 354 yards while allowing 357 yards. It’s never a good sign for the long haul when see a team allow more yards than they gain.Cincinnati’s defense has been solid all year expect when they face a top-notch QB. It will beinterestingto see if the Bengals try to blitz Manning becausehe is one of your betterQB’swhen getting rushed by more than four players. The Broncos have allowedjust 10sacks in seven games so far this season. If the Bengals don’t get any pressure on Manning it’sgoingto be a long day. The Bengals’ defense has generated 23 sacks so far this season and must get at least three sacks if they want to upset the Broncos.
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I think Payton Manning has made it back to Elite status after not playing all of last year. Manning will bring his 109QBR, which is ranked No. 1 in the NFL.Thescary thing is that I see more room for improvement. Eric Decker andDemaryiusThomasare looking more and more like they will both be 1000+ yard receivers this year. Thomas has 39 receptions with 679 yards and four touchdowns. Eric Decker has 38 receptions for484 yards and five touchdowns. They both mightflirtwith double digittouchdownsby the end of the season. I think this team wants to pass more and take full advantage of their future Hall-of-Fame QB. Denver has beenableto run this season (112 yards per game in 2012), but make no mistake this team wants to spread teams out and throw the ball down field.
Andy Dalton will try to match what the Broncos will try todo on offense. Dalton has been solid with a 64% completion percentage and 87.7QBR. His 13/10 TD/INT ratio needs to get better if the Bengals want to make the playoffs.I think the Bengals will have somesuccessas A.J. Green has put up someridiculesnumbers against all defenders. He is a toughmatchupfor everybody. Green has 636 yards on 44 catches with seventouchdowns, and is lights-out in the Red Zone. Denver is solid against the pass (213 yards per game) so it will beinterestingto see what the Bengals have done during its BYE week to counter Denver’s excellent cover corners. There is some good news and bad newsfor Bengal fans. Thegood news.Cincinnati hasn’t allowed more than onereceivingtouchdown to any team’s crop of wide receivers in any game this season. They have allowed just 4 totalTD’sto wide outs this year. The bad news. The Bengals have allowed nine totaltouchdownstorunningbacks in just seven games. Running back groups facing the Bengals have surpassed the 100-total-yard plateau in every game this season. Keep in mind, teams coming off their BYE week tend to play better in areas that were once a struggle.
On 9/18/11, the Broncos defeated the Bengals 24-22 as 3.5-point underdogs. Denver is 4-1 SU but just 2-3 ATS vs. the Bengals in their last five head-to-headmatchups. This will be a big game to win for both teams. Denver’s next four opponents are Carolina, San Diego, KC, and Tampa Bay. TheBucsjust lost Left GuardCarl Nicks (toe injury) for the rest of the season. He’sbeen abig reason why theBucs’offensiveline is ranked in the Top 10 this season. Denver might bepoisedfor a nice little winning streak.The Bengals face the NY Giants next week and better not get caughtlooking ahead to the defending Super Bowl Champions.
The Broncos are 9-24 ATS after scoring 30+ points in their previous game. The Bengals are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following its BYE week. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the lastfour meetings.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Spread:Denver Broncos -3.5
I don’t love the pick but will side with the better offense, defense, Special Teams, and QB. Seems too easy. I do expect the Bengals to play better off their BYE week.Very light play on Denver.
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