Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Pick 11/24/19

Denver Broncos (3-7 SU, 6-4 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (7-3 SU, 6-3-1 ATS)
When: Sunday, November 24th, 2019 – 1:00 PM ET
Where: New Era Field – Buffalo, NY
TV: CBS

Point Spread: DEN +4 / BUF -4 (BetAnySports)
Total: 37.5

Takeaways From Week Eleven

The Broncos come into this contest on a bitter loss suffered on the road at the playoffs-minded Minnesota Vikings. Closing as a 10-point underdog, the Broncos were able to generate their third consecutive cover in a 27-23 loss against the Vikings. Denver led by 20 points but managed to squander the lead after a second-half rally led by Quarterback Kurt Cousins spawned the come-from-behind win for Minnesota.

Buffalo comes into this contest off a 37-20 thrashing of divisional rival Miami, last Sunday. Closing as a seven-point road favorite, the Bills were easy money when they laid waste to the “red-hot” Dolphins who had staged back-to-back upset wins over the New York Jets and Indianapolis heading into the match-up.

How the Public is Betting the Denver- Buffalo Game

67% of the consensus like the Bills here as the home favorite. However, early action seems to suggest otherwise as the line has fallen by a full point from Buffalo opening as a five-point favorite to its present state of -4.

The Historical

The Bills and Broncos last met in 2017 in Buffalo, where the Bills defeated the Broncos by a score of 26-16. As a result, Buffalo was able to stage an outright upset closing as a 3.5-point underdog.

Betting Trends

The most notable trend heading into this contest is Buffalo’s propensity for profitability against Denver as of late. The Bills have been the winning team against the spread in the last five meetings between both sides. In all five of these scenarios, the Bills were the underdog.

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Injury Concerns

Denver will once again be starting reserve quarterback Brandon Allen who will be filling in for up-and-comer rookie quarterback Drew Lock who is doubtful due to a thumb injury. Lock came into the fold after veteran signal-caller Joe Flacco was placed on the IR in early November.

Why We Like The Broncos To Cover

I don’t see Denver heading into this game flat after they gave up a huge lead in Minnesota last week. If anything, the Broncos will feel like they have something to prove in their follow-up, and I anticipate they will be extra confident heading into this contest knowing that they can control a potential post-season team in their own barn with a backup quarterback. Last week’s turn of events boiled down to a tale of two halves. Should we see the Broncos bring the first-half team we saw in the Twin Cities last week with them to Buff City, I don’t see Denver suffering another meltdown against a Buffalo team who is not known for their offensive acumen. After all, Buffalo manages to score just 21.1 points per match (20th in the NFL) and relies heavily on their top-three scoring defense (17 points per game) to win the game for them. Should Buffalo’s defense get exposed, it could be a very long day for the Bills. The fact remains that the Broncos have a blueprint to follow now as they managed to hang 20 points on a reputable Minnesota defense in one half of play. I suspect Denver will rinse, wash, and repeat. The question for me lies in how Buffalo’s offense will fair if such a scenario were to unfold. For these reasons, the Bills are a dicey roll in this spot, even if many think that Denver may be demoralized after last week’s loss.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Denver Broncos +4

Some other betting sites would suggest that the Bills are laying a couple more points than they should here. I concur with such an opinion. Buffalo’s spate of dollar signs in this conference series automatically positions them to be overvalued by the fact there is a higher likelihood of paying a premium to back them here given the fact they have been so kind to bettors who have taken them against Denver, as of late. As a result, I was tempted to play this one on the Money Line at +175. Nevertheless, I will play this one conservative and grab the likely inflated points. To those that do feel adventurous, I would suggest splitting the bet with half of the wager on the Money Line and the other half with the points.