Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Preview and Predictions

Denver Broncos (3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS)

Date/Time: Monday, November 13, 8:15 PM EST

Where: New Era Field, Orchard Park, NY

TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Den +8 / Buf -8

Moneyline: Den +300 / Buf -400

Over/Under Total: 46.5

Sean Payton brings the Denver Broncos to Western New York to battle Sean McDermot and the Bills to close out the week 10 NFL slate on Monday Night Football. The last time we saw the Broncos was Week 8, when they beat the Chiefs in Mile High Stadium. The Bills lost again to the Bengals on Sunday Night. BOVADA.LV is making the Bills 8-point favorites and setting the total at 46½. Let’s take the Broncos to cover the big spread and possibly sneak out of Buffalo on a three-game winning streak. Here is the handicap.

Denver’s Offense Has Found Their Identity

QB Russell Wilson came into the season as the biggest wildcard on this team and maybe in the entire NFL. Could he rebound from a disastrous 2022 campaign and regain some of the magic he showed with Seattle early in his career? Through September, it looked like he was a lost cause, but over the last few weeks, Russell has taken some small steps forward. He has thrown for five touchdowns in his last three games, though he has turned the ball over four times that span. But the offensive identity that Payton has established is a power-running attack with Javonte Williams carrying the load. Williams’ 2022 season ended with a multi-ligament knee tear, and he was still hobbled coming into this season. Williams took over the backfield in Week 6, and since that time, he has averaged 80 scrimmage yards per game and kept the Broncos offense on schedule. Williams should have success against the Bills’ rush defense, which is ranked 31st in rushing yards per attempt allowed. Buffalo will have to load the box to limit the Denver ground attack, giving Wilson some deep looks on play-action.

Adding to the issues that the Bills have had against the run all year, star linebacker Matt Milano and D-tackle DaQuon Jones were lost for the season in Week 5, one week after star cornerback Tre’Davious White was lost for the season in Week 4. Cincinnati didn’t run particularly well last Sunday night, but when they needed big yards on the ground to close out the game, Buffalo couldn’t stop them. I think the Broncos will be able to put a strong offensive performance on the tape this week. They will be rested coming out of the bye and have some momentum on their side.

The Bills Offense Is Sputtering

Josh Allen and the Bills offense raced out of the gate and scored 139 points in their first four games, leading the football community to believe they had it all figured out. Over their last five games, they have only scored 101 points – and these games were against average defenses. Buffalo has turned the ball over nine times in those games, including an Allen interception in every game. They still move the ball well and have good efficiency statistics, but they struggle to score early in games, so they are playing catch-up late, which is helping their stats. Buffalo came into the year riding James Cook as their lead back, but they have gone to Latavius Murray some and increased Allen’s load in the running game. They seem to be a little desperate, and while we might think this week is a chance to get right, the Broncos D is starting to find their footing.

Denver’s defense has rebounded from their horrible start, including giving up 70 points and 700 yards to the Dolphins in Week 3 and allowing the Chiefs to only get nine points in Week 8. I get it that Patrick Mahomes had the flu, but Denver limited a healthy Mahomes and the Chiefs to 19 points in Week 6 and the Packers to 17 in Week 7. Denver was getting gashed on the ground earlier in the year but has somewhat cleaned that up, only allowing 99 rushing yards per game over those last three games. CB Patrick Surtain II is as close to a shut-down corner as we have in the NFL, and he should travel with Diggs to at least make Allen utilize his other options. Denver’s D has started to get some pass rush that has created 11 takeaways over their past five games, and I expect they will be able to get one or two more this week. Denver’s defense can’t be as good as it looked in Week 8 against the Chiefs, but they hold their own and frustrate Allen and the Bills. With their offense being able to sustain drives and stay on the field, I don’t see Buffalo being able to run away and hide in this one.

A Case For The Under

In addition to liking the Broncos to cover, I also like Under. As Denver plays better, they will grind out the clock by running the ball more, using the full play clock, and getting first downs on the ground. Buffalo should be a little more conservative this week as they try to cut down on turnovers and not fall behind early in the game. Only one of Buffalo’s last five games has gone over 47, and the Broncos’ last three games – 2 against the Chiefs – have averaged 32 points. Unders in prime-time games have been hitting at a high rate in the 2023 season, and there is always a chance weather impacts a game on Lake Erie.

Play The Broncos And Under

Let’s count on the Broncos to continue trending up while the Bills trend down, buy a Denver ticket, and throw a little on the Under.