Denver at Seattle Prediction ATS | NFL Week 1 Picks

NFL Week One Free Pick – Denver Broncos

I have a couple of sports betting systems that are relevant to week one only.
I’ll share the plays from one of them in today’s article.

Between 2018 and 2021 this play was 0-10.
In 2022 it was 2-2.
Last year it was a 0-1.
That’s a combined Fade of 13-2, 85% over the last 6 years.
This year, three teams qualify:
LAC, Atl, and Seattle.

Of the three, I see Seattle as the most likely to fail based on the current spreads, so Denver/Seattle is the first game I’ve purchased for the upcoming NFL regular season.
(I’m down on Seattle anyway this year; see the PredictEm article on my game-by-game breakdown of their 2024 schedule and free play recommendation for their Regular Season Wins Total.)

I’ll take a closer look at the other two spots for this play and may add them before Sept 8th.

For right now, buying the Raiders +3 or more on the road against the Chargers looks like a possibility to be added to my opening day card.

Putting money on Pittsburgh getting fewer than a FG does not look like something I want to invest in. And with either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields starting at quarterback for the Steelers that opinion is not likely to change.

For now, I took Denver +5′ for half of my normal-size NFL bet. Here is the money management/betting strategy behind this play.

I can’t get a good read on which way this line will move because it’s a month away, and there are too many as-yet-to-be-determined factors in play. Of the utmost concern is the question at quarterback for Seattle. Geno Smith is scheduled to start, but he’s already dealing with injuries, and Seattle hasn’t even played their first preseason game yet.
Smith has not one but two injuries, knee and hip. After missing four practices last week, Geno returned to the field on Monday, August 5th, but it’s a long time between now and the opening day kickoff, and anything can happen.

If Geno plays well in the preseason and comes out of it healthy, there’s no doubt he gets the start. If that happens, I expect the line to rise slightly.
If Geno’s out, Sam Howell will get the start.
If that’s the case, I expect the line will drop to Seattle -3/-4. So, in case the line moves against me, I’ll buy half of my standard NFL wager +5′, while it’s still available.

If the line starts to drop from +5′, it’s not much of a problem getting +4′ or +5 when I purchase the other half of this wager.
None of those are key numbers.
If it goes higher, getting +6 or better can’t hurt.
Either way, my analysis says buying half now and waiting to buy the other half is the right thing to do until the Seattle quarterback situation shakes out.

There are rumors floating around that Seattle is looking to trade with the Atlanta Falcons to get former Washington Huskie star QB Michael Penix Jr.
Seattle’s new offensive coordinator is Ryan Grubb, who was offensive coordinator for the Huskies the last two seasons. The Seahawks wanted Penix but decided to not trade up in the draft to get him. That was when they thought they had Geno Smith ready to go.

In the off season, Atlanta signed former Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins to a four year deal worth 180 million. That’s NOT the kind of deal you make and then use the 8th overall pick in the draft to get a quarterback.
When questioned about the controversial pick, Falcons head coach Raheem Morris stated that Cousins is definitely their starter this season, and Penix is the future.

While the Seahawks would love to have local hero Penix, the rumors are very likely just that – rumors, and nothing more, the Falcons are not going to give him up. A more realistic rumor, and more bad news for Seahawk fans, is that they’re trying to sign Ryan Tannehill (which, if true, would be great for my Seahawks Under 7′ Regular Season Wins bet.)

On the Denver side of the ball, the Broncos look to be going with Bo Nix, the rookie out of Oregon. The alternative would be Jarrett Stidham, who had two starts late in the season last year, losing at Las Vegas and beating the Chargers.

Yes, a rookie quarterback making his first start on the road is not an ideal situation, especially when that start is at Seattle, one of the loudest stadiums in the league. But Bronco’s head coach Sean Payton will make things easy for the kid with a simplified game plan.

And you know Payton will have his defense ready to go. After their embarrassing performance against Miami last season, when they gave up 70 points, Denver’s defense averaged 20 PPG over the remainder of the schedule, a number that would make them a Top Ten defense for average PPG in 2023 (and a number that would be even lower if Russell Wilson and the offense didn’t have so many three and outs, leaving the defense on the field for long, tiring stretches.)

It’s always risky betting a week one game a full month before the season starts before a single preseason game has even been played. Starting lineups have not yet been determined and injuries could have a devastating effect on the early number you buy. But the risk runs both ways, yours and the books.

I’ll split my wager, taking half now and monitoring what happens with Geno in the preseason before deciding when to place the second half of the wager.

Den +5′ for half a unit

Recap: 1-0 (NFL)
Record: 1-0

Review: In the Hall of Fame game, I took Hou +1′ and Ov 31. My wager was based on my analysis that Houston would score at least 16 points, which would give me a split at worst case. They had 17 at halftime.

The game was canceled in the third quarter due to severe weather. Bets on the side and money line were refunded because they were undecided. The total was settled by the time the game was called off, 38 points scored, so I got paid for my bet on the Over.

Open bets (all wages are TV/action size only, unless otherwise specified as regular size, meaning an investment type wager):

Oklahoma – 40′ (regular size wager)
USC Regular Season Wins Un 7′ +100
Cin Bengals Reg Season Wins Un 10′, +108
Sea Seahawks Un Reg Season Wins 7′, +126
Denver +5′ week one

Final word – one of the habits of successful sports bettors is remembering and learning from past mistakes. There’s a lesson to be learned from the Houston/Chicago Hall of Fame game.

The line was sitting at Chi -1′.
The day before the game, the Chicago head coach announced none of his starters would play and the line jumped to Houston -1′.

Everyone who bet on Houston from +1′ all the way to -1′ missed out on an opportunity to win money, as their bets got canceled.

What two mistakes did those bettors make?

What SHOULD they have bet on, based on their interpretation of the line move and the reason for it?

Take some time and think about it.
I’ll share the answer in my next column.