Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Betting Pick

Dallas Cowboys (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) vs. Washington Commanders (4-12 SU, 6-9-1 ATS)

NFL Football Week 18

Date/Time: Sunday January 7th, 2024. 4:25 PM (EST)

Where: FedEx Field Landover, MD

TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: Dal -13.5/Wash +13.5

Moneyline: Pokes -800/Commanders +580

Total: 44.5

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Last week, the Dallas Cowboys beat the Detroit Lions 20-19 in a controversial ending in front of a Saturday night audience. The Lions initially converted the 2pt conversion, with just seconds remaining on the clock, which would have secured the victory. However, the conversion was called back after Taylor Decker was flagged as an ineligible receiver despite a lot of evidence supporting that he did report to officials. As you can imagine, the Cowboys’ haters felt they were gifted the victory because the defense was able to hold the Lions on the subsequent game-deciding play. However, the Cowboys’ biggest gift came Sunday afternoon when the Arizona Cardinals upset the Philadelphia Eagles.

The upset loss from the Eagles moved the Cowboys back into the top spot of the NFC East and greatly improved their playoff-seeding outlook. This Sunday, just one regular season game remains for the Dallas Cowboys to secure the division and the #2 seed in the NFC when they travel to FedEx Field to meet the Washington Commanders. The Commanders are huge 13.5-point underdogs and have had a pretty awful 4-12 SU campaign. Amidst the struggles, the Commanders will be looking for a final opportunity to get a victory while attempting to derail the Cowboys’ hopes of taking down the division and potentially fighting for Head Coach Ron Rivera’s job at the same time.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Betting Analysis

Back in week 12, I confidently backed the Dallas Cowboys against a nearly identical 13.5-point betting line when they hosted the Commanders at AT&T Stadium. My reasoning in that game was that Dallas plays their best football at home, and their elite pass rush would be too much for Washington QB Sam Howell. In the end, the Cowboys completely demolished Washington on both sides of the football in a 45-10 finale. For this Week 18 rematch, I’m not sure my opinion of the match-up has changed at all. The Cowboys will be the visiting team this week, and they have not played as well on the road compared to their home performances.

However, I would also argue that Dallas has everything to play for, while Washington’s motivation may be in serious question. The Commanders are expected to turn to QB Jacoby Brissett this week in hopes of getting better play at the quarterback position. Brissett was supposed to start last week in place of benched starter Sam Howell, however, Brissett missed the game completely due to a hamstring injury. All early signs point to Brissett suiting up this week, which should be a slight upgrade for the Commanders’ passing attack and better projections for WR Terry McLaurin and WR Curtis Samuel. However, I don’t believe it changes much due to the Cowboys’ strength along the defensive line. If the Cowboys’ pass rush gets home again like I expect, Dallas will likely cruise to another win in this rivalry.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Betting Trends

• The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in the last five games.
• The Cowboys are 6-2 SU in the last eight games.
• The Cowboys have hit the “under” in four of the last six games.
• The Cowboys are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five games against Washington.
• Washington is 1-5 ATS in the last six games.
• Washington is 0-7 SU in the last seven games.
• Washington is 0-6 SU in the last six games at home.
• Washington has hit the “over” in five of the last seven games.

Dallas vs. Washington Betting Prediction

Aside from the match-up advantage alluded to above, it is important to note that the Washington defense is banged up with injuries, especially in the secondary. As a result, this bodes well for QB Dak Prescott and WR CeeDee Lamb who are both having career campaigns. I look for both guys to stay hot and the Cowboys to cruise to an easy victory!

Jay’s Pick: Take Dallas -13.5. Make the Pokes a +6.5 underdog by adding them into a 20 point NFL teaser found at Wagerweb Sportsbook!