Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Pick

Dallas Cowboys (10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS)

NFL Football Week 15

Date/Time: Sunday December 17th, 2023. 4:25PM (EST)

Where: Highmark Stadium Orchard Park, NY

TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: DAL +2.5/BUF -2.5

Moneyline: Pokes +125/Bills -145

Total: 50.5

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Last week, the Dallas Cowboys delivered an emphatic message to all of their haters with a 33-13 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles in front of a Sunday Night Football audience. Prior to the big victory over their NFC rivals, the Cowboys were riding a four-game winning streak that was propped up by an easy stretch in the schedule. However, last week’s dominating effort over the Eagles proved the Cowboys are among the elite teams in the NFL. This week, the Cowboys will take their 5-game winning streak on the road to face the Buffalo Bills, who are also on the heels of a big victory.

Like the Cowboys, the Bills are on the heels of their biggest win of the season, stemming from a 20-17 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. The victory moved the Bills to 7-6 SU and kept the organization in control of their playoff destiny. However, Buffalo’s remaining schedule remains an uphill challenge starting this Sunday with a face-off with the Dallas Cowboys, who many would consider the hottest team in football at the moment. If the Bills fail to run the table, they will be in need of desperate help from situational outcomes to keep their playoff hopes alive. Therefore, Buffalo has everything riding on this week’s outcome, and for that reason, oddsmakers have the Bills listed as slight favorites for their home stand against the Cowboys!

Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis

While I understand the situational components of this week’s contest and also understand Dallas has not played their best football outside of AT&T Stadium, I still believe Buffalo has a huge problem to overcome this weekend, and that problem surrounds the elite pass-rush of the Dallas Cowboys. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts and a talented offensive front in Philadelphia did not have an answer for the Cowboys’ pass rush last weekend. Now, Buffalo’s offense will try to solve the same enigma after struggling heavily in recent weeks on the offensive front.

Bills QB Josh Allen remains among the best in the NFL in playmaking abilities, but Allen also leads the NFL with 14 interceptions as well. The Cowboys defense has feasted on turnover opportunities throughout the season and we have to question whether the elite pass-rush will play a factor in the turnover category again this week. With that being said, the Bills have been able to overcome the turnover issues to average 27 points per game this season. If the Bills are able to limit the turnovers and/or still produce touchdowns, I think the focus will once again shift to QB Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense. Prescott has been the most debated quarterback in the NFL this season. The numbers indicate he is having an MVP-style season with 3,500 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and just six picks. However, Prescott’s critics have attributed those numbers to the inferior competition. Sunday’s road trip to Buffalo will be one of the more difficult challenges of the season, and Prescott’s play will once again be under the microscope.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Trends

• The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in the last five games.
• The Cowboys have hit the “over” in five of the last seven games.
• The Cowboys have hit the “under” in seven of the last ten games on the road.
• The Cowboys are 5-0 SU in the last five games.
• The Bills are 2-7 ATS in the last nine games.
• The Bills have hit the “under” five of the last six games.
• The Bills are 13-7 SU in the last 20 games.
• The Bills are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six games against the Cowboys.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Prediction

Situationally, the Bills seem like the play here. However, Dallas is playing as good as football as anyone has seen in recent memory. Are we just expecting their level of play to suddenly stop this Sunday? I’m not sold on that being the case, and I think the Cowboys match up very well against the Bills. As a result, I’m riding the hot hand this week by expecting Dallas to go into Buffalo and come out with the victory!

Jay’s Pick: Take the Cowboys +2.5