Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons Pick

Dallas Cowboys (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS)
NFL Football Week 11
Date and Time: Sunday, November 18th, 1:00pm EST
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA
TV: FOX
By Bob Clark, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: DAL +3/ATL -3 -110 (-105 with reduced vig)
Over/Under Total: 48
POWER RATINGS – WEEK 11: ATLANTA FALCONS -2

TAKEAWAYS FROM WEEK 10:

After witnessing week ten in the NFL, I came to a couple of conclusions. First off, the Atlanta Falcons are not back as much as I thought they were and second, Dallas is still alive when I thought they were done for. The Falcons who had won three straight and got themselves right back into the playoff mix laid an egg…you know what, No, I am not going to be PC about this. The Atlanta Falcons absolutely SHIT THE BED in Cleveland this past Sunday. The Browns defense shut down the Falcons run game like the 85 Bears and Baker Mayfield looked like the reincarnation of Steve Young. Cleveland beat the Falcons 28-16 and this game against Dallas for Atlanta is as close to a must win as it can get. On the other hand, Dallas was able to take down the defending Super Bowl champs on Sunday night. The Cowboys beat the Eagles 27-20 and got themselves right back in the NFC playoff race. This game in Atlanta on Sunday will be a huge one for both teams not only from a standings standpoint but a tie breaker if it comes down to that at the end of the season.

HOW THE PUBLIC IS BETTING DALLAS AND ATLANTA:

The Atlanta Falcons are favored by three points at home in this one. This spread will more than likely stay where it is since both sides of the action are pretty even. As of midday on Tuesday, 54% of the public action liked Atlanta and 46% was on Dallas. The number appears to be right on the mark. So far in 2018, the Atlanta Falcons have only covered the spread three times (3-6 ATS) and the same goes for Dallas (3-5-1 ATS).

THE HISTORICALS:

The Atlanta Falcons and Dallas Cowboys series dates back to 1966. Since that time, the Dallas Cowboys have built a 16-11 series lead with two of those games being playoff games. Dallas won eight of the first nine games played between these two franchises but over the past decade or so, Atlanta has been the more successful. The Falcons have won five of the last seven played against the Cowboys including a 27-7 beatdown just last season in Atlanta. This game is a big one for the 2018 season and the winner will find themselves alive and well in the NFC Wild Card race while the loser will be on life support.

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INURY CONCERNS:

There are no major injury notes coming into this week’s game. There is still a small chance that Deon Jones returns for Atlanta but local media and sources say that it looks more and more like he will be held out one more week to rest his injured foot. Also for Atlanta, Matt Bryant is questionable to return as well.

WHEN DALLAS HAS THE BALL:

With Atlanta’s defense still banged up and still not playing at a high level, the Dallas Cowboys need to take advantage of this. It is starting to become quite evident that Dak Prescott is not the 2nd Coming of Joe Montana and he is prone to making mistakes. The Dallas offensive success rests on their offensive line and the running of Ezekiel Elliott. If Dallas can get the run game going, that is when Dak is at his best. Just last week Zeke rushed for 151 yards and a touchdown on just 19 carries and that was against the Philadelphia Eagles front, imagine what he can do against this Falcons defense that just this past weekend gave up 176 yards and a touchdown on just 20 carries to Nick Chubb of the Cleveland Browns. Just like I have said a few times over the last few weeks, the key to beating Atlanta is getting a couple of stops and keeping Matt Ryan and the offense on the sideline. This weekend, I predict a huge dose of the run game from Dallas to try and keep this game low scoring.

WHEN ATLANTA HAS THE BALL:

It is no secret that the Atlanta Falcons have a very good offense. Regardless of the debacle that took place in Cleveland this past Sunday, they are still very good and must be respected. Matt Ryan has this offense ranked 2nd in the NFL and that is exactly what they will do come Sunday…come out throwing. The Dallas pass defense is ranked near the top ten in the league, but they have still only managed to intercept opposing QBs three times while giving up twelve touchdown passes. Matt Ryan and the Falcons will come out and use the passing game to set up the run. As crazy as that sounds, that is what they will do. Matt Ryan is one of the NFLs most efficient passers when running playaction and I see a large amount of this coming the Cowboys’ way this Sunday. Atlanta wants to score in the 30s. That will take the pressure off the defense and in my opinion, this Dallas team cant score 30 on the Falcons anyway.

BETTING TRENDS:

I just cannot take the Dallas Cowboys seriously. I am sick and tired of them being preseason favorites every single year. They are a mediocre team with a below average head coach and average at best quarterback. The Falcons are going to light them up this weekend just like they did last year. Head to head, Atlanta has covered the spread in five of the last seven these two played. Also in this series, the favorite has covered five of the last six. I think Atlanta comes into the game Sunday focused and pissed off about the chance they blew in Cleveland. Atlanta takes down Dallas 31-20 this Sunday.

WEATHER REPORT:

It has not been confirmed whether or not the roof of Mercedes-Benz will be opened or closed but the weather in Atlanta on Sunday will be cool and cloudy. The forecast calls for temperatures with a low of 40 and a high of 63. There is a 2% chance of rain but game should be dry according to most experts.

Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TAKE THE ATLANTA FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS AGAINST THE DALLAS COWBOYS